Rasmussen: Obama & Romney Tied At 45%?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Obama, Palin, Polls, Romney
Honestly, I’ve been less and less inclined to believe Rasmussen’s number over the past few months since they’ve shown extremely high negatives for Obama when no other polls were showing the same.
And now we have Obama tied with Romney for 2012 after the President has made virtually no big missteps?
Hmmm…
Not only that, Obama only bests Sarah Palin by 6%, in a 48% to 42% race?
Come on…
Here are some more suspect numbers…
When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin.Men prefer the Republican over Obama whether it’s Romney or Palin, while women like the president better in both match-ups. Palin continues to fare more poorly among women than her male rivals.
Obama is only pulling 41% of Indys when pitted against Romney? And Palin pulls 41%?
Sure, Independents are wary of Obama right now, but he hasn’t dropped that far out of favor.
Also, Independents fear Palin like the plague. There’s no way they’ve swung back this much for her after this disastrous last month. Not a chance.
Do know that I’m more than willing to accept that Obama’s number have slipped, but not by this much and this fast. No way, no how.
This entry was posted on Monday, July 20th, 2009 and is filed under Barack, Obama, Palin, Polls, Romney. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 20th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
When I looked at these polls I had to laugh my head about that and take Rasmussen’s number as a grain salt. But this could really help Obama team take to the message to the American people and get health care pasted.
July 20th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
You should give these poll numbers the full weight that any polling being done THREE-PLUS YEARS ahead of the event deserves. :-)
July 20th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Rasmussen seems to have decided he can make more money being a GOP talking head than he can doing accurate polling. To be a talking head he needs stuff to talk about, ergo he releases bizarre polls like this.
And I’ll second Tully here. Current polls mean jack. If the stimulus starts to work anytime in the next three years, Afghanistan doesn’t blow up, and Obama can even make symbolic progress in the Mideast Obama wins re-election big.
They are slightly less irrelevant to Congressional chances in 2010. That election is only 16 months away. But that’s still a lot of time. If he gets health care reform done and it works, the stimulus package gets jobs going, etc. the Dems’ll hold the House and almost certainly keep a 60-vote majority in the Senate.
July 20th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Yeah, this poll as a predictor of the next election is hooey, but I’d not be quite as dismissive of the independents as you are, Justin. Obama has burned through a huge amount of emotional bank based on the extreme deficit spending. In the sly words of Mr. Stewart, “That communist looks a lot like our President!” And he’s done so very very quickly. And he’s pushing for more needlessly rushed legislation when it comes to healthcare. It’s making indies nervous; if it’s the right thing to do, why not take some time and do it right?
July 20th, 2009 at 7:33 pm
The only reason for a public report of a poll such as this, at this time, is to manufacture news. In other words, you can’t spin a top without a floor for it to spin on.
It is, as Tully’s recent spamfilter coined, a spinola special. It’s built for spin. Therefore, it’s quite safe for us to utterly ignore. Why? Think about it this way:
All of the things that we could say about independents and Obama and healthcare and public support for various administration policies and so on are no more and no less true because of this poll. Without taking any sort of a pro or anti-Obama position here, let me stress that NO substantial changes to how America’s government does anything are going to happen without serious dissent and concern. And actions that win and lose votes.
In what kind of a fantasy world is something like say healthcare reform (whatever that even is, as Tully stresses) going to happen in an epic back-patting session, by popular acclaim? If that was possible, it would have happened long ago, right? The basic problem is that we want what we can’t have, flawless medical treatment instantly, at low cost.
So, we won’t get what we want, we’ll get what we get. After more costly battles.
Whatever reform Obama signs WILL come with substantial political costs. That’s a given. Polls will meter this. Don’ lose your minds over ‘em.
If this poll shows us anything, and I’m not sure it does, then it shows us that a serious high-stakes game is currently underway on an issue with many, many stakeholders. The bigger the game, the higher the stakes, the closer to a 50-50 split you see in the audience.
July 21st, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Rasmussen, from what history has shown, has always been the closest to reality, while Gallup skews slightly to the left and Zogby skews slightly to the right.
The last election polls from Rasmussen came out almost exactly as people voted, so I find them to be pretty accurate.
Obama is in a world of trouble. Even if the economy starts to swing around near the end of 2009, job losses will continue to rise until late 2010. When people look at the economy, they look at JOBS.
People expected a “stimulus” package, meaning a quick economy boost, not a special interest paycheck. This is NOT what the Democrats advertised back in January.
Romney is looking more and more like the level-headed adult in the room.