Iowa Straw Poll: “Make Or Break” For Ron Paul?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Iowa, Ron Paul
There are always those moments in a dark horse’s political campaign where they know they have to win a particular contest or it’s probably not going to happen for them. Again, I’m going to draw a parallel to Howard Dean. You Roniacs may not like this, but oh well, the comparison is apt in my mind so I’m sticking with it.
In 2003, I’d argue that it was the online MoveOn.org poll that Howard Dean overwhelmingly won. After that Democrats started really taking notice and pouring money into the campaign and as Dean raised millions, the media took notice. But the MoveOn poll was the turning point.
So what’s Ron Paul’s? Well, as the title suggest, I think this Saturday’s straw poll very well might be his. That’s why he’s starting to run ads in Iowa.
In fact, he’s essentially coming right out and saying as much…
The Texas Congressman has begun running television ads in Iowa before Republicans there travel to Ames this Saturday for a crucial straw poll. Current and former frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are not participating in the poll, meaning Paul could receive higher-than expected support.“We have a ways to go. We have to translate that tremendous support we have on the Internet into real votes,” Paul said in an interview on MSNBC Tuesday. “And we may learn about that this Saturday whether we have been able to achieve that.”
Or, for that matter, not achieve it? This is really going to be a test of whether he can turn online support into real world support.
And Paul isn’t just running ads. See, since this straw poll costs $35 to vote in (how very democratic…), he’s bought 500 tickets so people can vote for him…
Thanks to the generous donations of our supporters, we have purchased 500 tickets for eligible Iowa residents. We will make them available at no charge to eligible Iowan residents on a first-come first-serve basis. In addition to voting, this Red ticket will allow you access to the Hilton Coliseum where the candidate speeches will be delivered.
So then, is this make or break time? And please explain why…I don’t want Roniac spam please. We’ve written enough stories by now that I think this site deserves some honest discussions, yes?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 8th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, Iowa, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:05 pm
I was a “doubting tom” in the beginning but now I am getting to the point where I believe that Ron Paul can win.
Almost every time I tell someone about Ron Paul they google him and then a day or two later tell me they are going to vote for him. Several have even asked me to get them lawn signs.
So if that is happening to me it is probably happening to Ron Paul supporters across the country…. and that is how to win an election.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Um, I hope this psot doesn’t count as “Ron Paul Spam.” Never sure what the definition of that is these days.
I don’t see the Ames Straw Poll as “make or break” for Paul. I’m a Paul supporter and my realistic ranges of emotion for the following placements are:
1st ecstatic, shocked, sure he’ll win the nomination and presidency
2nd very happy, puts him indisputably in the top tier
3rd still happy, still puts him in the top tier…but not “indisputably!”
4th what I’m expecting, I’ll feel neutral but objectively it’s still a good result for him
5th neutral result for Paul
6th disappointed
7th really disappointed
8th putting all my money in gold and silver and moving to Montana
9th same as 8th but less silver and more gold
10th Montana? Try the Klondike
August 8th, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Well, Ron Paul (unlike some of the others) has also said that he’s not dropping out regardless of the straw poll results. And based on the number of days he’s spent in the state (far fewer than Tommy Thompson, Brownback, or Mitt Romney) I’d say he isn’t pursuing an ‘Iowa or Bust’ gambit. Of course this only tells us Ron Paul’s view of the situation – it could be that he’s wrong and Iowa really is make or break for him. On the expectations side of things, it seems like opinions of his chances vary widely – you have some people (Patrick Ruffini) thinking he has a good shot at second, while others (thirty local Republican leaders) unanimously think he won’t do better than sixth. I think that he will certainly beat the percentages that polling show for him (3% or so), both due to a committed core of supporters and because of crossover from antiwar democrats and independents, and this will give him something to put a positive spin on even if he does rather badly in absolute terms.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
Real Clear Politics says, “Whatever the outcome for Paul, going into Saturday with absolutely no expectations — either positive or negative — is a good thing. He either impresses, if he does well, or is left out of the stories, which is better for him than failing to meet expectations.”
I think I agree with that.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:21 pm
I hope he does well but this makes me kinda worried:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20070806/cm_rcp/iowa_republicans_see_romney_as1
August 8th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
Ron Paul can save us all… Beside he’ll abolish the IRS and the income Tax!!!!
He pull out of the middle east and leave those poor people alone and just go after the terrorist!
He would work hard to get rid of inflation by not only getting rid of the Federal Reserve but also going to something like the gold standard- Which will stop the constant inflation that we all have had since 1913!
He’ll stop the NAU/SPP/NAFTA/CAFTS/GAT/ALL THIS CRAP!!!!!!!!!
Evertime you shop at wall mart your building up Chinas Military!
Chinas now ghosting our Navy and shooting satelites out of orbit!
Wake up America!!! China is a Communist government that has concentration camps- Death buses- The take organs out of living people for Westerners for only 30 to 70 K!
Wake up America- There are forced labor camps in China making products!
Those who do get paid get about 14-28 cents an hour they live in barracks that they charge them rent and electricity for so they are basically indentured slaves….With IOU’s to the company store!
Wake up America…
Russia,China,Venezuela,Iran,Syria, and others are plotting behind our backs!
They could b#!th slap us with a oil embargo!
We are one small disater from going bankrupt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We borrow 2.5-3 billion a dy from China to pay the bills!!!!!!!!
Thats like you paying your bills with credit cards that your enemy owns!!!!
Wake up America!!!
Impeach Bush and Cheney and arrest all Neo Cons!!!!!!
We need Ron Paul to fix this nation!!!!
He could largely turn it around in his first term!
Pleas America have the courage to type this name into Google- Sibel Edmonds
It’s all a lie…….Almost all of it…………
Wake up!…Paul Revere II
August 8th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
No, but I suspect it is make or break for Romney. How the hell would the guy who is only supposed to get 0% to 2% of the vote be marginalized by getting … *drumroll* more than 0% to 2% in this vote?
I submit that the author is either bought and paid for or is challenged in that special way.
On the other hand, if Paul breaks 10% in this poll, you fat cats better watch the hell out come primary time. Then, if you are very lucky, you had better pray Paul doesn’t run as an independent with a decent running mate.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
your full of shit, just like all the others who try to discredit the good Dr.
August 8th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I don’t think it is make it or break it, simply because of how dedicated Paul supporters are. A loss will just strengthen their resolve. In fact, a win may be more detrimental. While it would cause the media to notice, it may cause the supporters to start to back off without even realizing. There is no animal more willing to fight than when it sees that their are no other options.
However, a loss could be devastating for other reasons. Primarily, if RP people start screaming vote tampering, already, in a *straw* poll, even if it were true, would cause the rest of the world to sit down and ignore everything else they say.
Straw polls are rigged by definition and serve only to raise fund for the main party and to illustrate the organization of a campaign. Yes, they do show some level of support but by no means do they have much weight (no, not even the Iowa one, look at the recent history of it).
So will Ron Paul supporters accept defeat gracefully should it occur? I sincerely hope so!
August 8th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
I was actually looking for airline tickets to Ames last month because I felt the momentum. I don’t think this poll will be a deal breaker one way or the other and here is why.
With so many states moving their primaries up combined with the early start to the campaign season, I feel that the Iowa straw poll has lost much of its significance. I am not saying that it is insignificant however several “Front Runners” have decided to bow out. That being said I see the following possibilities ranked in order of what I think will most likely happen.
1.) Large turnout with Ron Paul pulling even Mitt Romney
2.) Small turnout with Ron Paul running away
3.) Large turnout with Ron Paul locking in at 2%
4.) Small turnout with Ron Paul making up a little bit of ground
Every way it could possibly be, including things that I don’t think would happen (Large turnout with Ron Paul Running away for instance), it is already obvious the media will consider anything positive from the Ron Paul camp to be insignificant do to either A.) poor showing or B.) the “front runners” not being involved.
If things don’t go as expected for Paul, then I think large Republican strongholds like FL will become the focus.
Paul needs to broaden the focus of his campaign. In order to do that, he needs a larger audience. To get a larger audience, he needs to make news. Certainly winning in Ames will kick the campaign into high gear. And a win doesn’t really have to be coming out on top in the poll. He just needs to show up.
The more the media has to defend Rudy Mitt John and the non-candidate as viable choices, the more support Ron Paul will get. In fact I predict that after this weekend, you will hear all kinds of “news” on how Ames has become insignificant.
Ron Paul 2008
August 8th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
I’m always bragging about how popular Ron Paul is on the internet and now we will see if it translates directly to Iowa straw poll votes.
Ron Paul has over 30,000 registered volunteers so you’d think that would translate into something. Still it will be challenging because Ron spent much less time in Iowa compared to other candidates.
Regardless of how he does, Ron Paul addicts like myself will still keep plowing forward full speed finding any possible way to break through.
Hoping for Ron Paul to win!
August 8th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
This is make time, but probably not a break time. Ron Paul just needs to beat a few of the other candidates. His campaign started in the back of the pack and he just needs to show it is making progress in the real world. If he finishes in the bottom two I think it will be a big blow to him.
August 8th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
The campaign has enough cash to campaign on in New Hampshire after Iowa. However, if both Iowa and New Hampshire are loosers for the good doctor, the campaign will be finished.
That said, I’m calling Ron Paul for 4th or 5th. Give his one week of campaigning, that will be a significant win. Thompson, Huckabee and Cox will have spent the better part of a year campaigning. If those guys don’t do well, they are finished.
Best,
James
August 8th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
He can succeed without winning or even coming in second. He does need to register votes though. What will be most telling is that I predict Romney not getting more than 40% of the vote despite the desperate money funneling his campaign has achieved. Brownback gets 20-25% with Ron Paul right behind him in the real world. Of course, I am hoping for a solid 30-35% for Paul. Is the youth in Iowa truly energized, or do they stay home.
Despite the outcome, I hope Ron Paul keeps at it. As the others drop off, he will be harder for him to be ignored.
August 8th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
He can succeed without winning or even coming in second. He does need to register votes though. What will be most telling is that I predict Romney not getting more than 40% of the vote despite the desperate money funneling his campaign has achieved. Brownback gets 20-25% with Ron Paul right behind him in the real world. Of course, I am hoping for a solid 30-35% for Paul. Is the youth in Iowa truly energized, or do they stay home.
Despite the outcome, I hope Ron Paul keeps at it. As the others drop off, he will be harder for him to be ignored.
You really are offended by Ron Paul supporters Justin.
August 8th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
I think Ron Paul needs at least 10% or it is over. In fact I think anyone under 10% should drop out.
What are they expecting to happen? To marry rich, win the lottery or Bush to say this one is my favorite (well maybe this last one is possible although I am not sure it will really help!).
I think Dr. Paul is clearly the best person running. There are at least 2% of the voters that are libertarian in Iowa. 30% of the Republicans hate the war. And there are a LOT of Democrats upset with their party’s dithering on Iraq. The average total vote count in the Iowa straw poll is 30-40,000 so 10% is only 3-4,000 votes.
In fact my bet and hope is that Paul will get at least 10,000 votes or 25-33% on a 100+ degree day. I am not sure that 10,000 is enough to beat everyone else but I bet it will at least be 2nd.
It is time for people to get up off their lazy libertarian or classic conservative behinds and vote for freedom. I can not see this opportunity happening again for another generation. The last time we had a chance like this a billionaire was running as a libertarian/conservative. This time we have a true conservative/libertarian running and the rest of the field is brain dead on an issue the entire country disagrees with and that is Iraq.
Ron Paul couuld do VERY well but Iowans need to get to Ames, Iowa on Saturday.
People need to call their Republican, Democrat and libertarian friends in Iowa and get them to vote for Dr. Paul. Tell your Deomcratic friends that if Paul wins the Republican nomination, then Hillary could actually win!!! Ask them to vote for Paul. Heck Paul might even force Hillary to declare that she will get out of Iraq quickly. Otherwise she will just futz around like the rest of the Democrats are now, except Gavel and Kucinich!
One does NOT need to be a Republican to vote in the Iowa Straw Poll. Just $35 and proof of Iowa citizenshipp and be at least 18 in November 2008.
I wish I could vote in Iowa.
Go Ron Paul!
August 8th, 2007 at 9:20 pm
The Ames Straw Poll for GOP Presidential candidates
will be held this Saturday, August 11th. The event will run
from 10am-6pm and results will probably be available within
a few hours of closing (assuming the electronic voting
machines don’t break down).
But, what’s needed to win?
In 1999, slightly over 23,000 people voted and George
Bush won with over 7,000 votes – about 30%. Interesting
to note that the Iowa GOP actually sold 37,000 tickets,
so 14,000 ticket holders didn’t show (or they were left
in the hands of campaigns who couldn’t get voters to
take them).
There was no straw poll in 2003, since Bush was the
incumbent and heir apparent.
For this year, the organizers were predicting turnout
in excess of 50,000 people. They’ve since cut that down
to 30,000. BUT: the maximum capactity for the Hilton
Coliseum, where the event will be held, is just slightly
over 15,000 (under the best circumstances), so it
seems highly unlikely that many more than that will
actually cast a ballot.
http://www.center.iastate.edu/newsite/buildings/Hilton_tech.asp
This year, there are nine candidates competing
(Fred Thompson will not be included on the ballot,
since he isn’t announced), just as there were in 1999.
So, we could guess that 30+% will win: 4,500 votes.
Although Giuliani has said he won’t participate, his
staff has been very active, possibly trying to win a
second-place finish “without trying”. McCain has
also skipped the poll (as he did in 1999), but a bad
showing will still push him closer to withdrawal.
Mitt Romney is expected to win (possibly
because he’s purchased half the tickets), so any
showing under 40% (6,000 votes) will indicate that
he CAN buy tickets, but he CAN’T motivate voters.
[BTW: The major state GOP leaders are 90+% in
support of Romney, so this is a test of their own
ability to motivate activists.]
Ron Paul’s campaign has purchased only 500
tickets, but he has had a full schedule campaigning
in Iowa and some very good local media coverage.
His rally drew over 1,000 people only a few weeks
ago and he’s put more staff on the ground, so it’s
not improbable that he could get the 20% of votes
(3,000) which would put him in second place.
Tancredo is also reported to be making a major
push in the straw poll. He says he’ll drop out if he
finishes 5th or lower. In 1999, those who didn’t
make the top four dropped out within a few weeks.
Assuming Ron comes in behind Romney and
Giuliani (~1,500 votes), it will be considered a
major victory by the media. Given the history of
the poll, Ron will be a “major contender”, with
all that implies. If Tancredo drops out, its likely
that his supporters will turn to Ron (although
there’s no indication that Tom would endorse
Ron). The dominant field of “pro-war” candidates
has helped Paul so far, but a smaller field will
“focus the minds” of GOP activists. They might
see that Ron is the only candidate who has any
hope of beating Hillary.
Bill Westmiller
[Republican Liberty Caucus http://www.RLC.org
August 8th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
Well, I am not attempting to spam you. I am a real person. However, your article seemed a little slanted to me. But maybe that is just how I am reading it. You mention that Ron Paul has purchased 500 tickets to give to supporters. Why?
Were you trying to point out that he is taking this seriously, not seriously enough or that he is trying to buy votes. It could be taken as the last choice.
I am not sure why you failed to mention that Mitt Romney not only has offered every person in Iowa 2 free tickets, but he is also picking them up in buses and driving them to the event.
Tancredo has promised a ticket to anyone who asks him for one.
So, if you suggesting that Dr. Paul’s behavior is somewhat shady or underhanded, then you should have included more information about the other candidates.
The problem with an article like this is that you are trying to persuade voters to move in one direction or another. If RP loses, then you should not support him any more. That is what people don’t like.
Also, I am sure the only reason you wrote this article was to get 1.attention, 2. hits, or 3. money. So, you write blather and people respond. You get what you wanted. If you would like, I will put you on a list to make sure I don’t get anything you write.
Plus, the word Roniac. Why does that have such an obnoxious ring to it? Oh, I know…. It is an insult! That’s why.
You ask for honest discussions right after you have thrown a pie in your opponents face. Amazing.
Learn some manners.
Either Ron Paul will do well or he won’t. Either his campaign can survive the hit or it can’t. Others who have done poorly in Iowa have gone on to win the Presidency. So, what do you want to discuss?? What the lottery numbers are for next week?
You pretend you are writing an honest piece and want honest commentary, but you subtly attack the candidate, out right attack his supporters and want to discuss what the future holds. Shall we all get out our crystal balls? This is not a real topic, a real article, or real reporting. So, what do you expect?
August 8th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Well, I am not attempting to spam you. I am a real person. However, your article seemed a little slanted to me. But maybe that is just how I am reading it. You mention that Ron Paul has purchased 500 tickets to give to supporters. Why?
Were you trying to point out that he is taking this seriously, not seriously enough or that he is trying to buy votes. It could be taken as the last choice.
I am not sure why you failed to mention that Mitt Romney not only has offered every person in Iowa 2 free tickets, but he is also picking them up in buses and driving them to the event.
Tancredo has promised a ticket to anyone who asks him for one.
So, if you suggesting that Dr. Paul’s behavior is somewhat shady or underhanded, then you should have included more information about the other candidates.
The problem with an article like this is that you are trying to persuade voters to move in one direction or another. If RP loses, then you should not support him any more. That is what people don’t like.
Also, I am sure the only reason you wrote this article was to get 1.attention, 2. hits, or 3. money. So, you write blather and people respond. You get what you wanted. If you would like, I will put you on a list to make sure I don’t get anything you write.
Plus, the word Roniac. Why does that have such an obnoxious ring to it? Oh, I know…. It is an insult! That’s why.
You ask for honest discussions right after you have thrown a pie in your opponents face. Amazing.
Learn some manners.
Either Ron Paul will do well or he won’t. Either his campaign can survive the hit or it can’t. Others who have done poorly in Iowa have gone on to win the Presidency. So, what do you want to discuss?? What the lottery numbers are for next week?
You pretend you are writing an honest piece and want honest commentary, but you subtly attack the candidate, out right attack his supporters and want to discuss what the future holds. Shall we all get out our crystal balls? This is not a real topic, a real article, or real reporting. So, what do you expect?
Why can’t I post this?
August 8th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
Well, I am not attempting to spam you. I am a real person. However, your article seemed a little slanted to me. But maybe that is just how I am reading it. You mention that Ron Paul has purchased 500 tickets to give to supporters. Why?
Were you trying to point out that he is taking this seriously, not seriously enough or that he is trying to buy votes. It could be taken as the last choice.
I am not sure why you failed to mention that Mitt Romney not only has offered every person in Iowa 2 free tickets, but he is also picking them up in buses and driving them to the event.
Tancredo has promised a ticket to anyone who asks him for one.
So, if you suggesting that Dr. Paul’s behavior is somewhat shady or underhanded, then you should have included more information about the other candidates.
The problem with an article like this is that you are trying to persuade voters to move in one direction or another. If RP loses, then you should not support him any more. That is what people don’t like.
Plus, the word Roniac. Why does that have such an obnoxious ring to it? Oh, I know…. It is an insult! That’s why.
You ask for honest discussions right after you have thrown a pie in your opponents face. Amazing.
Learn some manners.
You pretend you are writing an honest piece and want honest commentary, but you subtly attack the candidate, out right attack his supporters and want to discuss what the future holds. Shall we all get out our crystal balls? This is not a real topic, a real article, or real reporting. So, what do you expect?
August 8th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
Dear Justin,
I am not attempting to spam you. I am a real person. I am not sure you know the definition of spam. However, your article seemed a little slanted to me. But maybe that is just how I am reading it. You mention that Ron Paul has purchased 500 tickets to give to supporters. Why?
Were you trying to point out that he is taking this seriously, not seriously enough or that he is trying to buy votes. It could be taken as the last choice.
I am not sure why you failed to mention that Mitt Romney not only has offered every person in Iowa 2 free tickets, but he is also picking them up in buses and driving them to the event.
Tancredo has promised a ticket to anyone who asks him for one.
So, if you suggesting that Dr. Paul’s behavior is somewhat shady or underhanded, then you should have included more information about the other candidates.
The problem with an article like this is that you are trying to persuade voters to move in one direction or another. If RP loses, then you should not support him any more. That is what people don’t like.
Plus, the word Roniac. Why does that have such an obnoxious ring to it? Oh, I know…. It is an insult! That’s why.
You ask for honest discussions right after you have thrown a pie in your opponents face. Amazing.
Learn some manners.
You pretend you are writing an honest piece and want honest commentary, but you subtly attack the candidate, out right attack his supporters and want to discuss what the future holds. Shall we all get out our crystal balls? This is not a real topic, a real article, or real reporting. So, what do you expect?
August 8th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Well, I guess you told us. Comments are not getting posted. Good job!
August 8th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
I think ABC did Ron Paul a huge favor by putting him in second to last place by announcing the poll numbers of all the candidates. This means that if he does any better than second to last, he surpassed expectations.
So, because expectations are so low, I don’t think it’s make or break for Ron Paul unless he comes in last or second to last (which I think is unlikely). Such a poor showing could put a major chill on his progress.
If he’s in the middle somewhere, he’ll announce that it was a huge success, that he’s moving up, and his support will continue to grow at the rapid rate that it has been growing and he may catch up later.
If he gets second or third, I think it will be enough to really open the door for him to improve and get some major media attention.
If he wins, all hell breaks loose and he is a major top tier candidate overnight.
August 8th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
[...] Straw Poll. Admittedly, the straw poll will not be an accurate … See all stories on this topic Is Iowa Straw Poll Make Or Break For Ron Paul? Donklephant – USA By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Ron Paul, Iowa, 2008 Election There are [...]
August 8th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
I was a Ron Paul supporter before I even know who he was, and I’ll be one until the end. He was honestly a dream come true for me.
August 8th, 2007 at 10:13 pm
National Polls have him at 2%. If he come in last, as is expected, I think he’s finished.
But 6th or 7th would be a really strong showing in a state where most people don’t even know his name. Most like he’ll get around 2000 votes; if he gets more than that, then pretty much everyone has under estimated him except his most rabid fans.
August 8th, 2007 at 10:52 pm
I really like what Jennifer had to say. Very nice.
August 8th, 2007 at 11:37 pm
Iowa is not a “Make or Break” issue for Ron Paul. He has been running a national campaign over the past few months: He has had events in SC, PA, TX, CA and IA versus the “2nd tier” guys that have been camped out in IA for months/years now. He has been busy building resistance cells across the US; those will go will help in the long run.
August 9th, 2007 at 12:03 am
I fear that this could very well destroy the Ron Paul campaign. Ron’s supporters have inflated hopes due to him consistently winning 1st or 2nd place in small straw polls and online polls. Looking at the field, Huckabee and Tancredo have focused much more time and energy into Iowa. Add to this that Guiliani and McCain’s supporters are HIGHLY unlikely to vote for Ron, and probably will not vote for one of their main competitors, Romney, and finally that according to ABC, Ron is polling second to last in Iowa, and you’re left with a very dire looking situation.
Placing 5th is where Paul supporters should keep their hopes. Even placing 4th would be an amazing feat. Unfortunately, unless he places 1st or 2nd, which I personally think is impossible, Ron’s win will be dismissed by the national media as a combination of ‘fanatical supporters’ and Guiliani and McCain having dropped out of the poll. The irony of course being that their dropping out put him at a disadvantage, but since when can you expect the media to properly analyze cause and effect.
Honestly, with everything against him, he’ll be lucky to not place last. Hopefully he’ll grab at least 5th and a couple other candidates will drop out, giving Ron more time/attention in the future. I do have concerns that his support can stay strong through a major loss tho. Donations will wane off and many of his supporters will revert to their defeatist views of politics, disillusioned by ‘the system’, or cry foul and trigger a media slander campaign against Ron as a choice for wackos, which will make it impossible for his more ‘normal’ supporters to spread his message without doing damage to their reputation.
August 9th, 2007 at 12:28 am
If I lived in Iowa, I would definitely take advantage of free tickets and a bus pass from Romney. I would also hit him up for a few cocktails to celebrate after I go in and vote for Ron Paul. Thanks Glove Romney!
Yours truly,
A Roniac.
August 9th, 2007 at 8:24 am
I follow Ron Paul’s campaign daily. I watch the media bias and lack of coverage. I see the intense support around the country. I was in Costa Rica 1st of July and I began to talk about a presidential candidate and before I could get his name out an Aussie said “Ron Paul?” and expressed his desire to have someone like him in Austrailia representing the people.
I have seen great articles discussing Ron Paul, his tract record in congress, his loyalty to the constitution and his relationship with Ronald Reagan.
And other articles pulling out what they can to bash him, such as association with certain groups billed as wackos and kooks. Which his response on Fox Sunday after the debate was that people join him for what he believes he doesn’t believe all that his supporters believe.
Ron Paul’s concerns about protecting the constitution and civil liberties are not political and that’s why he draws support from all spectrums of life and political affiliation. He does have a very conservative view of government spending and fiscal responsibility with taxpayers money, which he doesnt waiver from even at the risk of not pleasing certain groups of Americans. That should be appriciated not use as a tool to bash, but thats the game we play.
I can’t get a grip on Iowa support. But for the first time in my life I am proud to support a candidate and that’s not an accident or me decending into a conspiracy group. Its simply that I woke up.
See, I had settled for the status in Washington and picked a side. Then I walked away from both sides for what I couldn’t explain but I knew as most Americans do that our system is flawed or contaminated by self-interests.
Ron Paul represents principles that I want to demonstrate in myself. That’s what leadersip is about. Leading by example!
I have great faith in Americans ability to see the truth. But has Ron Paul’s campaign been successful at showing Iowan’s the great things I have seen? George Stephanopolous didn’t give RP the opportunity to speak about Taxes or Healthcare which is a shame but it probably wasn’t by accident either. That could hurt him with pro war Iowan’s.
August 9th, 2007 at 8:42 am
If I could get 15% as a “Ron Paul” Republican in the second-most pro-Bush (as measured by Bush to Kerry votes) Cong. Dist. in a GOP Primary in 2006, against an incumbent who was in the Hanoi Hilton with John McCain, before $70 oil and before the surge and the subsequent three month back to back triple digit casualties made the futility of the war obvious, then Ron Paul will get at LEAST 15% in Iowa.
The Wash. Post poll is biased, and their May 8 editorial should give you a hint as to why.
Iowa could help, but it can’t hurt, since even a single digit response to Ron Paul in BOTH Iowa and Illinois will still leave several months of potential disasters in Iraq which can only help Ron and hurt Bushites.
August 9th, 2007 at 8:43 am
Mitt Romney has reportedly spent $5 million in Iowa, and he and the others have made several trips to Iowa. Ron Paul has made only two trips there and he does not have a limitless supply of campaign funds provided by special interest groups.
Many people have not heard Congressman Paul’s name yet, and it’s still very early in the race. When people do get to hear his message, many find it refreshing and just what they’ve been waiting for.
Congressman Paul has also been ignored in the mainstream media for the most part, but when he does get some press, it is usually biased or even misleading. Yesterday the Des Moines Register published several inaccurate statements about Paul’s position on issues as important as the war in Iraq and illegal immigration.
I predict that Congressman Paul will do as well as can be expected with these circumstances. His army of real Americans via the meetup groups is ready to help him continue the battle for the long haul.
Ron Paul 2008
August 9th, 2007 at 9:11 am
Rather ludicrous to think a candidate’s entire future could be determined over a year from the election merely by a straw poll. If the jist of this could be said to be derived from “the straw that broke the camels back” then I must reply as well “many a slip twixt the cup and lip” – meaning all manner of things will change between now and November 2008. To waste time predicating the future based on the entrails of what is essentially a Republican fund raiser for the state Republican Party is a bit silly. There are real dragons to slay, why waste time on this frivilous stuff. What next? Will Lindsay Lohan endorse a candidate and thus become king maker? Will Paris Hilton flash anti war panties? How far will we pander to seem relevant?
August 9th, 2007 at 9:21 am
They keep citing his online presence, but I was there when he swept the NH Coalition for Taxpayer straw poll hosted by and voted by very real human beings! Imagine it!
The mainstream media and the power elite that own them still believe they can decide for us what candidates are viable or not. The old media is dying and has been losing credibility and relevance for years now.
Run independent if you don’t win Ron!
The last hope for a return to the real promise of America is at stake.
August 9th, 2007 at 9:48 am
There are two basic hypotheses explaining the profound disparity between Ron Paul’s online popularity and his dismal showing in “scientific†polls:
1) New Media users are profoundly different from the populous in their preferences for President.
2) The Old Media is profoundly biased against the populous’s real preferences for President but the populous is so dependent on the Old Media for information that the populous finds itself effectively unrepresented at election time.
What would be a fair test of these two hypotheses?
If #2 is correct, an election isn’t an adequate test since it is merely reflects the anti-democratic biases of the Old Media, so we can’t really conclude anything from an election in which a “long shot†candidate is defeated.
I would suggest that a real scientific poll wouldn’t ask people about which candidate they prefer, but rather work like a dating service, asking people about their preferences: matching the preferences of the people to the positions of the candidates.
By comparing the outcome of this position preference poll to the outcome of the current “scientific†polls of people asked to choose from among candidates, we would see a measure of the degree to which the people were being mislead by the Old Media.
To construct the questionnaire properly, see my article “Why the Political Compass is Inherently Vectorist and How to Correct It”. The result of comparing “scientific†pick-a-candidate polls to such a match up between the policy positions of candidates and voters would be a measure of how much, and in what policy dimensions (and directions in those dimensions), the media is biased.
August 9th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. This straw poll means nothing. The only thing that matters is that millions of true Americans, who believe in the Constitution and the legacy of the Founders, now have a way to discover each other and speak up.
Ron Paul is not only the only real candidate for President, he is the catalyst for bringing us all together. If you don’t recognize the opportunity we have to take our country back through Ron Paul, you’re a slave to the liberal-conservative or left-right mindset.
The only mindset that matters is Love vs. Fear, Right vs. Wrong, Constitutional vs. illegal.
What Iowa will show us is how hard we all have to work to wake others up and support Dr. Paul. If he wins, the mainstream media attacks on him will increase. If he loses, the mainstream media will say they were right when they called him unelectable.
I’m sick and tired of the few corporations that control the majority of the information the public receives telling US, the PEOPLE, who is electable.
I’m sorry, but WE will choose our own leader. That’s why people are fleeing away from major media in favor of the internet: The net lets us make up our own mind. The net doesn’t treat us like we’re pavlov’s dogs.
If, for some reason, Ron Paul does not get elected, I want to go start a new country with all of Ron’s supporters. You, my friends, are my brothers and sisters in the spirit of 1776. Liberty, Equality, Fraternity!
August 9th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Buckwheat Generally speaking Ron Paul spam just upsells Ron Paul without having much to do with the topic at hand. So you’re in the clear.
August 9th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
The Iowa Straw Poll is not a make-or-break situation for Ron Paul. He already has a large, growing base of grassroots supporters across the country and the internet which will support him regardless of the result. All the Iowa Straw Poll will do is change the attitude of the Old Media towards Dr. Paul. In this respect he has nowhere to go but up.
If he gets anywhere above the last two places, then the media (which had him polling at 2%) will have to report gains for Dr. Paul, especially considering the fact that he hasn’t camped out in Iowa like Huckabee, Brownback, or Tancredo. If he makes higher than 5th, which is a real possibility, then he has far surpassed the Old Media’s expectations and confounded the state’s inner-party Republican leaders. If he takes 2nd, then the Old Media will most likely attribute his success to the absence of Giuliani and McCain from the event, even though their abscence arguably hurts him. If he takes 1st, then all hell will break loose. Just my opinion though.
Ron Paul 2008
August 9th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
The lamestream media is never going to get it. They seem to think that all of the support Dr. Paul receives on the internet is from a bunch of wackos which I think is the exact oposite. They seem to be the most educated and aware people out there. Continue the support, they’ll come around but it’s not like we need them to.
August 9th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
I don’t think this is a make-or-break situation for Ron Paul in the slightest. He has plenty of cash on hand (third-most in the Republican field) to continue his campaign regardless of the result in Ames. And his supporters, though arguably small in number, seem to be considerably more dedicated, on the average, than people who support other candidates.
August 9th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
I don’t think The straw poll is either “Make” or “Break” for Ron Paul, except for the following scenarios (both extremely, equally, unlikely)
1) Landslide support blowing away Mitt Romney – like if the straw poll results were to look like typical online poll results. In which case, not only would Ron Paul clearly be in the top tier, and maybe even the frontrunner, but we would have to seriously reconsider how accurate telephone polling is anymore. I imagine a lot of politicians would have a lot of questions for polling companies about what they are really selling (especially since politicians are the biggest customers…)
2) Goose Egg (or near goose egg) – This would not totally end it, but would put it in serious jeopardy from which only a NH primary win (or steady telephone polling number increases) could rescue it. Given the amount of money in the campaign coffers, I think the campaign would probably hang on til after Feb 5th, and then Dr. Paul will start concentrating on his congressional seat. I also think most of his hardcore supporters will drift away to the Libertarian, Constitution, Democrat parties, and the Republican supporters will shift to one of the other 2nd tier candidates (depending on if one of them gets #2 or #3)
As I said, both very unlikely (I would even say that #2 is slightly more likely than #1, but both are at the extreme ends of the bell curve.)
Other than that, I agree with Buckwheat. I expect Dr. Paul to come in fourth or fifth, and I will be very happy with it, while the haterz will point it out as our death knell.
The activists have been busy (phone calls, lit drops, signs, ads, etc.) If it yields results, then fine, they will work hard some more. If it doesn’t yield results, then they will look for something else that does.
August 9th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
The good Dr. has little to loose in this straw poll – and much to gain. He will likely be explained away no matter the results. They will either ignore him, or if forced to explain his good showing, focus on how his fringe beliefs in liberty, the rule of law, and government’s constitutional limitations will never fly with the special interests tax dollar addictions.
He is feared by those (now millions) on the public dole, and even more feared by the tyrants interested in our obedience to the state.
Bottom line – it is certainly not make or break for the man fighting for our freedom. “We the people” are only beginning to notice the wonderful gift of his candidacy.
August 9th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
I am a Ron Paul supporter and registered republican. I would be very happy if he got 10% of the vote. If he is currently polling at 2% to 3% in national ’scientific’ polls this would be a huge leap!
Let’s be realistic and not loose our heads and cry foul and go on the attack if he doesn’t win in a landslide, thats not realistic and it would turn people off and distract them from his message.
We should hope for slow progress. It’s very very early in the election season and this is the first test. This test is not ‘pass or fail’, this test is ‘are we making progress’. Afterall, this is only a straw poll and not a real election.
As long as we keep working, and keep donating there is a chance for more people to hear his message, and that’s worth working for.
Thanks for your time.
August 9th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
I think you all are going to be surprised by how well Ron Paul does, assuming corruption of Diebold voting machines and incorrect tabulation of votes does not occur.
Of the 100’s of people that I know personally or work with that I have talked about Ron Paul, only one was negative and said “no f***in way”. This person has some issues to say the least…
And Just FYI, I spend 6-8 hours a day spreading the word, and donate $50 a week to his campaign. I’ve never campaigned or given any money to a politician before in my 15 years of adult life. I do it for my kids; for thier future. I will not leave the mess that my parents and grandparents left me if I have my say. To do nothing about the direction and state of our country is irresponsible and shameful.
August 9th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
I’ve been passively campaigning (dropping his name in casual conversation to pull the inevitable “Who’s Ron Paul?” question from people and explaining his message) for about a month now. I can say that out of about 100 people i’ve mentioned him to, that about 60 of them have told me later that they plan on voting for him. Whether or not they will is another story, but i don’t see why they’d just tell me that when they’re the ones bringing it up the second time around.
Fight the good fight, Revolutionaries.
Give me Ron, or give me death.
August 9th, 2007 at 11:32 pm
ron paul didn’t buy tickets. he may of purchased them but people paid for them seperate from his donations. they may of organized the donations but that is it.
August 10th, 2007 at 12:46 am
Ron Paul never expected to win. He was always in it to get his ideas out on a national stage and to hopefully persuade the GOP back into fiscal conservatism, non-interventionism, unfettered trade and dare I say it classical liberalism.
The fact that he now stands a fair chance, not a good chance, but a fair chance of winning the nomination and the Presidency is icing on the cake.
It shows his ideas resonate.
He just said yesterday he is in the race to the end, regardless of the Iowa outcome. He is no Ross Perot.
And a win isn’t coming in first. He has zero campaign presence in Iowa. A fifth place finish would be impressive…higher more so.
August 10th, 2007 at 12:52 am
Yes, Justin, the Ron Paul supporters are fanatical and more than a little ignorant. You can’t post anything on him without this kind of blind loyalty, anti-government, anti-poor people (”…now millions, on the dole”), paranoid, out of touch commentary flooding in.
Consider this one:
Crazychester doesn’t even realize how very little this group of people in New Hampshire reflects the overall American citizenry.
Now I have to admit that this one sounds like a good idea:
If only they would. Do you really think we could get rid of all of the fruitcakes who think that the Constitution means that we cannot adapt to modern times and their issues without having a Constitutional amendment for every one? Or the people who conveniently forget some of the amendments and what they mean?
August 10th, 2007 at 1:54 am
What Kate said. People who know about him love him. Whether or not enough people know about him yet for him to place high in the Iowa Straw poll, I don’t know. But he’s in it for the long haul.
I saw the results of a telephone poll of Iowans the other day, commissioned by ABC. If I read it correctly, they called random land lines, then qualified the people who answered by whether they intended to participate in the Iowa caucus. Only 98 said yes. Two out of the 98 said they would vote for Ron Paul. However, 81% said that the Iraq war was “worth fighting,” and only 28% had visited ANY candidate’s web site. In other words, the qualification eliminated everyone who has not been in a coma since 2003. If those people are representative of who will vote in the straw poll, then Ron Paul will do poorly.
We Ron Paul supporters have a lot of work to do. We have get the populace to googling. We’ve won the internet. Now it’s boots on the ground!
August 10th, 2007 at 3:51 am
Well, he will not win the straw poll with one week in IOWA but he will get a boatload of new donors. He is just beginning, why quit? Make or break? I think he will have 8 – 10 million by third quarter to compete. I think its make or break for Mitt because if he barely wins against any of them it shows his message is lousy and his organization weak.
August 10th, 2007 at 7:54 am
I think Ron Paul is going to win the straw poll. I know people think I am crazy for thinking this but o well. If Ron does not come in first it will be 2nd place and he won’t be far behind Mitt “Flip” Romney. Someone on here earlier mentioned the 100+ degree weather this week and I think that will keep a lot of people at home. But since the Ron Paul supporters are the most dedicated of all, this will increase Ron Paul’s chances in the poll. I’m just a 26 year old, crazy Ron Paul supporter so what do I know?
August 10th, 2007 at 8:08 am
The pre-Ames poll that has him at 2% is only amongst people identified as “likely GOP caucus goers.” At my Ron Paul meetup group in North Carolina, not even half of the members are registered republican, so it seems to me that if that is any indication then his real support amongst all voters would be much higher than his support amongst “likely caucus goers”. Furthermore, his event after the Iowa Tax Payers convention drew over 1000 attendees, which was more than the real convention which Romney spoke at. I can’t predict how he will finish at Ames, but I do know that a huge percentage of Paul’s supporters will get out to Ames, while only a small percentage of Romney’s supporters will.
August 10th, 2007 at 8:52 am
The Poll is very important, which is why setting expectations for success is very important. Sure, it won’t matter as much to we true believers what the outcome is, but there is a huge contingent (whether right or wrong) of prospective voters who just will not vote for someone who they think has no chance of winning. A good showing in Ames will open the door for this popultion to include him in their considerations.
A good showing will also float his name again in the MSM in a positive manner. And, yes, there are still a lot of people who do not know who Ron Paul is.
I’ve heard estimates of 40,000 people expected for this poll. So 2,000 Paul votes only gets us 5%. But 4,000 gets us 10% and into the very important double-digit club. Let’s get ‘r done.
Peace be with y’all.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:25 am
I am hoping for a strong showing, but I know so many are so fed up that this is just the start.We are at a pivotal time in our country where the citizens are going to continue to behave as sheep or stand up for what little is left of our freedom.The internet has enabled those of us who do not trust main stream media to find this incredible man of honor as the leader of new movement and I hope it is just the begining.
August 10th, 2007 at 9:33 am
F-YOU assmunch. What a slanted hitpiece. Fair and honest discussion??? LOSER! You are a terrorist! Off with your head!
August 10th, 2007 at 10:10 am
I don’t think the Ames Straw Poll will make or break him and I think there is a very good chance he may win.
Have you been following the Ron Paul Mosaic Ames Tribune ad story?
Might want to check it out.
The Ames Tribune is receiving requests for Saturday’s paper that will carry that ad at a rate of 1 per minute via email.
Apparently Ron Paul “is the talk of Iowa”.
Better check that out too.
August 10th, 2007 at 10:20 am
[...] I’ve written about this pretty extensively now. [...]
August 10th, 2007 at 11:19 am
“Romney Leadership Team Member Overseeing Straw Poll
I could certainly write volumes about this, but I think the facts paint the picture themselves.
The Iowa GOP is facing possible suit over their use of the same Diebold machines that were just de-certified. Story here.
They are claiming of course, that there is nothing to worry about since the voting procedure will be conducted with the assistance and oversight of the Story County Auditor’s Office. Story here.
If we look here we see the Story County Auditor is Mary Mosiman.
Mary Mosiman also happens to be on Mitt Romney’s “Romney for President Leadership Team”.
So there you have it, the Story County Auditor who will take part in overseeing the voting on the questionable machines is part of a team dedicated to “help Governor Romney share his vision for America”.
That’s a blatant conflict of interest and this is something we cannot ignore.
PS. It’s also worth noting that according to this article, Romney’s Commonwealth PAC gave State Auditor David A. Vaudt $1,000 in 2004.”
August 10th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Hey Jive! Love your youtube videos! Ron Paul won’t place bottom two. Guarunteed. I’m looking at top 4.
August 10th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
My experience has been the same as Kate’s: I’ll tell someone that I support Ron Paul. They’ll respond that they’ve never heard of him. I’ll tell them to google him, or check out what’s on Youtube. Most then end up not only supporting him, but actively so–some have made significant contributions to his campaign.
What does this mean for tomorrow? Maybe nothing. But if RP registers 1-2%, as he does in the polls, I’m sure the campaign will not only be very disappointed, but will have to wonder whether there is any chance he can catch on in the Republican heartland ranks. If the ends up in the double digits, I think we’ll see RP getting all the headlines, contributions will come pouring in, and we’ll be sure he made the first cut.
This straw poll is crucial.
August 10th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
Sorry Jim, but I never claimed the NHCT reflected the general population or their ignorant opinions. I was strictly refuting the image the media has been trying to portray. Specifically that the Ron Paul “phenomenon” is five or six geeks at home on their computer spamming polls. I’ve met so many informed and intelligent people who are generally concerned that this ship is headed for the iceberg and no one is at the wheel.
In fact, the divide you mention is the reason that I live in NH proudly. This is even despite the influx of morons from Massachusetts with their “government must be involved with every aspect of your life mentality”.
Worse for me though would be to have to live in a southern red state surrounded by hillbillies with a fourth grade reading level who blindly endorse everything their party and president does.
Do you prefer to associate with the contempt ridden crowd in Washington like Bush, Cheney, Rove that think the Constitution is outdated, irrelevant, or just a clever principle?
Of course it’s a classic, yet sad tactic to accuse an opponent of your own worst trait (ignorance in this particular case).
Why does Ron’s support anger you so much? Should we vote for another neocon robot like Romney or Guiliani?
Where’s your positive contribution? Suggest a candidate with more integrity if you’d like, but if you believe this nation is headed in the right direction, do us all a favor and go back to sleep.
August 10th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
I don’t like fanatics of any stripe, crazychester. Most of the Ron Paul supporters qualify and Paul himself attracts them because he is one too. Anyone who believes that in this world as it exists now you could eliminate every government regulatory agency and trust blindly that things would work out for the best is delusional. Any one who believes that a completely unregulated capitalist system in the United States would result in a country where everyone has a job and won’t have to worry about keeping a roof over their head and food on the table makes that first group seem well-grounded in reality.
Libertarians are blind ideologues who come from the other side of the spectrum from the equally ideological Communists. Neither end has a clue about the real world. The real world has to exist in a balance between the two, recognizing that there are those things that private companies can do and others that need to be left to government. Communists want way too much government and the Libertarians want too little.
August 10th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
It is not make or break because of the money he has in the bank. If he had Tommy Thompson kind of money it would be make or break but Ron Paul has more funds than John McCain. People never mention that those high in the media polls paid to get there through advertsing, Ron Paul has hardly spent any money yet. When he starts spending money and people start to learn about him he will go up in the polls. No where near make or break until he runs low on funds and that may never happen….
August 10th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Paul will come in a strong, second. If it is really hot and the old people stay home, he might pull off the upset. But really flip flopping Romney can lose big here. He has put so much effort into Iowa, if he shows a poor result he is in big trouble. The telling sign for me is in campaign contributions, he received much much less in the second quarter over the first – once everyone sees him for who he really is – an east coast liberal – they dropped him quick.
I noticed the post by Jim S above, who says he doesn’t like fanatics. Well Jim, if it weren’t for fanatics this country would never have been,
and we probably would still have a king. Remember, when you walk in the middle of the road, you get run over.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:17 am
Exactly Joe, there was a time when the founding fathers (men much more wise than Jim, myself, or certainly GWB), were considered fanatics, insurgents, and radicals to be dealt with as harshly as possible.
The problem with folks like Jim is that they accuse others of being ideologues while never facing the mirror. His statements are full of hate and negativity regarding OTHER peoples stances, but his type never advocate what should be done.
Support for Paul is at it’s core a political statement that tells the contempt ridden establishment that there are some of us who have woken up to the game.
There is no viable difference between the parties any longer. They play on the electorates moral sensibilities with distractionary issues while spending the nation into gross debt and deficit. Only the spending priorities are even marginally different.
I am under no illusion that a Paul presidency would suddenly wipe out every government program or agency. There is still an entire Congress to deal with, and one that is loath to even keep spending level much less reduced.
In fact, if you understood his and our positions properly, you would conclude that a return to the rule of law via the Constitution simply puts the power to regulate back into OUR(the States) hands. Virginia should decide how Virginia wants to educate it’s young. Massachusetts should be free to decide if they want legions of married gays. Wyoming should be able to set an 80mph speed limit if they’d like. California should be able to permit Marijuana use if it suits them. Do you really believe that Libertarians and other independents would like to see an increase in rampant pollution, corporate crime, or a host of other negative impacts on our quality of life?
August 11th, 2007 at 10:17 am
Except for Ron Paul, all of the other candidates must rely on supporters who are interested in betting on a winning horse. On the other hand, Ron Paul supporters are more interested in a message. That message will not die with a straw poll. In fact, a poor showing by Ron Paul will energize his core group to a point where the message might benefit in the long term.
August 11th, 2007 at 10:18 am
I honestly believe that what we see is a backlash from the last 45 years of dishonesty, and total corruption in our government. Being the age that I am, over 50, I remember the excitement that John F. Kennedy put into the 1960 election. I remember how JFK wasn’t taken serious before the primaries, and how he was given little choice of winning. Yet, he touched a chord with the American people, and won the election by a small margin. Not since until Ron Paul have we had a person running for office that was what one would consider a good choice for president. In fact most election over the last 45 years have not been elections won by the best man for the job, but instead the lesser of two evils. That was until the Florida and Ohio debacles in the last two elections, when evil won out.
People are tired of the same old rhetoric that they have been hearing for the past 45 years. Finally there is a man that believes what he says, and says what he believes. Ron Paul is in many ways a proverbial voice in the wilderness, and hope for a better tomorrow from a candidate willing to make the tough choices, and not bow to the neocon establishment, and big business. His voting record speaks for itself. He is what he is, and has backed that up with his voting record over the last 20 years, and that’s what people today want to see.
How well he will do in the straw vote today, remains to be seen, but if the money I have given to his campaign has helped him buy a few votes today, then more power to him, and his campaign. Is it make or break? No, I don’t believe so, but a good showing could sky rocket his campaign forward, and help him secure some of the campaign funds he needs and deserves. He is my opinion the last hope for America, and the problems we are now facing.
Ron Paul for President 2008!!
August 11th, 2007 at 11:03 am
I agree with Joe Lawson on Jim S. If it wasn’t for fanatics, there would be no Israel today. Israel didn’t happen because zionists played nice. It happened because they were willing to fight, die, and kill for “God’s land”.
I am definitely voting democrat running against any republican…. except Ron Paul. If he is the nominee, he gets my vote.
August 11th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
If Ron Paul wins, you know the straw poll results are going to be trivialized and labeled inaccurate or skewed because of all these maniac Ron Paul supporters. I happen to believe that the internet happens to hold one of the most telling cross-sections of the american voting populace. If the “real” results don’t match what we are seeing online, its because someone is lying.
I think that most people in this country that know anything about Ron Paul want him to win whether they agree with him or not because we want HONEST government. I’m damn near socialist, but I’d vote for Ron Paul over any of the democrats that are likely to win the nomination because they are bought and paid for.
August 11th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
“Do you really believe that Libertarians and other independents would like to see an increase in rampant pollution, corporate crime, or a host of other negative impacts on our quality of life?”
I think that they are so blinded by their ideology that they are incapable of recognizing that these just might be the consequences of what would happen should they get what they want.
Then there’s the states rights’ argument represented by
“In fact, if you understood his and our positions properly, you would conclude that a return to the rule of law via the Constitution simply puts the power to regulate back into OUR(the States) hands. Virginia should decide how Virginia wants to educate it’s young. Massachusetts should be free to decide if they want legions of married gays. Wyoming should be able to set an 80mph speed limit if they’d like. California should be able to permit Marijuana use if it suits them.”
In that case why bother having a country? Let’s just break it up, let it devolve into 50 nation-states. Your version of a nation was represented by the Articles of Confederation, which was superseded by the Constitution because they didn’t work. Your version of government would never have ended slavery. It would never have eliminated Jim Crow. Get real.
August 11th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
A couple of post praised the virtues of fanaticism, stating that we would not have had a United States or Israel if not for fanaticism.
What else can we credit to fanaticism? If it were not for fanaticism we would not have had the Spanish Inquisition, the Salem Witch trials, the Ku Klux Klan, the Holocaust, the murder of the Israeli Olympic athletes, the Oklahoma City bombing, 9/11 and other acts of terrorism and murder.
Somehow I think fanaticism loses when it comes to weighing human virtues.
August 11th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
As much as I would love for Ron Paul to place in the top three I am content for him to just keep in the race. He’s the only one who “gets it” with respect to cause and effect in our foreign policy (especially in the Middle East) and is probably more of a true conservative (i.e., Barry Goldwater) than any other candidate. I am 50 and this is the first presidential candidate to whom I have ever donated money. I wish him all the best and I will support him as much as possible here in North Carolina.
August 12th, 2007 at 8:18 am
You can’t say they didn’t work. The articles are merely the preface or a subset of the Constitution. Simplisticly arguing that we should not have a nation serves no purpose. It’s actually and argument FOR the Constitution.
It clearly lays out the roles and the balance as well as the limits of Federal government.
“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved for the States respectively, or to the people.”
I agree that we all lose with fanatic behavior if it is directed improperly.
And as far as fanatic ideology goes, you can’t forget dropping 3 bombs for every man, woman, and child in Vietnam.
Allocating more than a third of our total foreign aid to Israel.
Spending more than all of NATO combined on “defense”.
Spending more than all seven “rogue” nations combined.
Pre-emptive warfare
Undeclared warfare
on and on
August 12th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
The Articles of Confederation were no such thing. It was meant to be the framework for a virtually non-existent toothless central government. Get your history straight.
Paulistas are people who mostly have no idea of history or if they do view it solely through eyes blinded by ideology. For one thing they virtually worship the concept of viewing the Constitution as a dead document that cannot change with the times or allow the government to adapt to changing issues without a Constitutional amendment. Unfortunately not so much for them as for the country should they get their way, the real world isn’t willing to sit on its ass and wait for the purposefully difficult process of a Constitutional amendment to wend its way through the process.
August 13th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
You could be taken more seriously if your arguments didn’t include sweeping generalizations or insults. They may make you feel superior but . . .they really have no basis in fact.
“Paulies” are coming from every stripe and every state. Doctors, Lawyers, Soldiers, Teachers, Majorities, Minorities, as well as fruitcakes and hippies, and yes, there are also nut-jobs and conspiracy theorists as well.
I’d still rather be blinded by ideology than misdirected anger and hatred.
My history is perfectly straight. I’ve studied the Constitution, the Articles, as well as the Federalist papers. Not to mention Democracy in America by Toqueville. But this isn’t about me is it?
This is about whether we should just place blind faith in an executive branch and a rubber stamp Congress that surely must have our best interests at heart or to follow the document that is an unambiguous guideline for our Federal government’s rights and responsibilities.
an FYI: I was speaking about the Constitution (not the Articles) when referencing the limitations on government.
You would seriously argue that the articles were not a preface or prototype to the Constitution? Did you go school? Write a paper? Ever revise and expound on what you originally wrote or was it perfect the first time?
The Articles were weak, but they were that all important first step.
The founders were arguably much wiser than you or I. They were certainly light years beyond the likes of GWB or Karl Rove or the Clintons for that matter.
They saw first hand the potential for abuse of power and crafted the best antidote to tyranny that has yet graced this planet IF followed properly.
You are absolutely right that it was crafted to be purposefully difficult to amend. It was created that way by design with full knowledge that it would be as worthless as the Articles if it could be easily bypassed. Nearly all the warnings initially given by Madison, Jefferson, and Hamilton (men who rarely agreed mind you) regarding an overreaching military and government have now come to pass.
Lastly, it is clear you are some form of troll anyway. I’ve looked through this thread of posts and nowhere do offer anything remotely constructive or alternative to what seems to anger you so much about “Paulites”.
Do you have a better candidate?
Do you have any answers about the direction the country should go?
The only thing I can figure is that you’re alone at the computer and any sense of political unity or community or collective enthusiasm amongst people must really make you jealous. It appears that YOU are the one sitting on your ass trying to debase a real movement of citizens concerned that their friends, relatives, and children may wake up in a police state or economic depression sooner than later.
But if it soothes your soul, happy trolling!
I’ll be at the next sign wave for Dr. Paul actually doing something.
August 13th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
“You would seriously argue that the articles were not a preface or prototype to the Constitution?”
Do you know what a preface is? A prototype? The Articles were meant to be the framework for the government of a nation. The philosophy of government that generated them was proven to be unworkable even thought the people who were responsible for them thought that they would work and produce a viable nation. The political philosophy espoused by you and the other Paulistas are close to them and won’t work in the 21st century any better than the articles did in the 18th century. I know it’s a difficult concept for the Followers of Paul to comprehend but this is in fact the 21st century and its demands are far different that those that faced the Founding Fathers in 1776.
A better candidate? Biden, Obama or even Clinton in that order. It’s time to tone down the ideology and Paul isn’t about to do it.
What direction does the country need to go? Well, Libertarians such as Paul have blind faith in the market to solve all problems. There is absolutely no proof for this position but it is spouted constantly. There is no role for the government as a representative of the larger society to provide a safety net no matter what happens to any individual or the larger economy in Paul’s opinion. Just leave the businesses and corporations alone and it will all work out for everybody is the claim. Sorry, but that isn’t realistic. And whether he can really do it with Congress opposing him just the fact that Paul thinks eliminating Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the EPA, OSHA, the FDA and all other regulatory agencies (So far as I know.) tells me that he and his supporters are completely out of touch with the modern world. Besides, as we’ve seen with our current president all you have to do to cripple agencies is put people in charge who oppose the purpose of that agency.
Yes, you’ll be out doing something. Trying to support someone who would cripple our government because he has a problem telling the difference between what would work over 200 years ago versus what will work now.