Zogby’s North Carolina And Indiana Polls Add Up To 101%
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Indiana, North Carolina, PollsI’m not exactly sure what’s up with his numbers today, but as stated in the title they BOTH add up to 101%, which seems pretty sloppy. Obviously, I understand the idea of rounding up, but this seems akin to Clinton winning by 9.2% in Pennsylvania and the media reporting she actually won by double digits.
Here’s a screenshot of North Carolina:
And one for Indiana:
I took screenshots just in case he changes something. It is pretty early in the day yet.
So ignoring the weird anomaly today, there’s no real movement from yesterday and that’s telling in and of itself. Clinton actually did add 1 point in North Carolina, while both of them added a point each in Indiana.
Some more about North Carolina:
Obama enjoys solid leads in the cities of Greensboro, Charlotte, and the “research triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham, which contain large numbers of younger voters. He has done well across the country among voters in urban settings, while Clinton has done well among older and rural Democratic voters. Obama leads among the key demographic of voters age 35-54 by a 58% to 31% margin – which is dramatically different than how that age of voter acted in Pennsylvania two weeks ago. There, Clinton won among those voters. It is also important to note that Obama has made real inroads among voters age 55-69, where Clinton wins 44% and Obama wins 43% - a statistical tie.
And Indiana:
Clinton leads among white voters, 46% to 39%, with 15% left unsure or supporting someone else. African Americans in the Hoosier state, which make up about 11% of the Democratic primary electorate, heavily favor Obama. Obama leads in Indianapolis by a 54% to 33% margin, while Clinton leads by a similar margin across southern Indiana. Across the northern tier of the state, including Gary in the west, South Bend, Elkhart, and Fort Wayne in the east, the pair are tied at 42% each.
One last thing, I don’t have access to Zogby’s full numbers, crosstabs, etc., but it seems the only way he could have arrived at 101% is if somebody rounded up a number they shouldn’t have. Because what probably happened is two numbers fell on .5%, but seriously John…just show us the .5%. We’d get it. And it’s a lot better than having your numbers add up to something statistically impossible.
This entry was posted on Monday, May 5th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Indiana, North Carolina, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
May 5th, 2008 at 6:49 am
I predict that either Clinton or Obama will win one or more of the contests.
Also I like the new comment disclaimer. I will not disparage people based on age, sex, handicap, race, color, sexual orientation, national origin or ancestry. But it seems that religion is fair game, so let me just get it out there by saying that I hate Scientology.
May 5th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Sloppy’s got nothing to do with it. If you round, you’ll get such results sometimes. Example: You have 4 candiates, and one has 80%. The others each have 6.67%. Round up and each has 7%, for a total of 80+7+7+7=101. Happens all the time, dude.
The only alternative to to use the decimals, which people don’t like. Surely you’re not pro-decimal, are you? :-)