Zogby: Obama Opens Up 14 Point Lead In North Carolina
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, PollsThis is starting to remind me of New Hampshire, but at least his numbers add up to 100% today.
Yesterday he had the race at:
Obama – 48%
Clinton – 40%
Other – 5%
Not Sure – 8%
Total – 101%
Today:
Obama – 51%
Clinton – 37%
Other – 4%
Not Sure – 8%
Total – 100%
Now, the big caveat here is that’s a pretty big 12% still floating out there basically undecided, so this is why I’m taking Zogby with a grain of salt once again. But he has been fairly accurate after Super Tuesday, so take that for what it’s worth.
In North Carolina, Obama wins 79% support among African Americans, compared with 11% for Clinton, the junior senator from New York. But while Clinton wins among whites, 52% to 37%, Obama’s advantage among African Americans more than counteracts her advantage among those white voters. The African American vote in the North Carolina primary is expected to be about 32%.Early voting in North Carolina began April 17th, and Obama has done well among the 30 percent in the survey who said they had already cast ballots. Among those voters, he leads Clinton by a 57% to 34% margin. Many of those ballots may have been cast before last week’s controversy over Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Geographically, Obama made inroads into what had been Clinton territory in western and eastern North Carolina, while Clinton closed to within three points in Charlotte. In the southeast corner of the state, Clinton held a 12 point lead.
Interestingly enough, another website had a prediction that Obama would win by 17% given demographic breakdowns and how he has performed in similar states surrounding North Carolina.
Could they be seeing something that other pollsters aren’t?
This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
May 6th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Actually, Zogby had Ohio as a dead heat, which was a pretty big miss. So, with that wild swing in one day, I think that grain of salt is in order. I might believe it if Zogby showed some drop in the undecideds – but he didn’t. It is just not believable that many people changed sides in one day. The poll is flawed.
I’ll take a guess at this based on the RCP average, and assuming that 70%+ of the undecideds break for Clinton. Obama supporters made up their mind early.
NC
RCP Avg: O-50% C-42% U-8%
MW Predicts: O-52% C-48%
IN
RCP Avg: O-44% C-49% U-7%
MW Pedicts: O-46% C-54%
Net-net: Both candidates hold serve, bu questions about Obama remain. Super Delegates remain frozen – well more like slushy. Perhaps a continuing slow drip for Obama, which means he can still run out the clock. Clinton will still has a compelling argument for the Supes, which is all that matters now. She will likely finish in June with more people having voted for her across the entire process when all the counting is done.
Oregon may be critical. Obama has the lead and should win there, bu if Clinton can knock him off in Oregon, panic will strike the supes. Clinton could make Oregon competitive.