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Gallup: Obama Up By 2

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans

So Gallup is starting to see the race tighten, while Rasmussen shows a still steady race. Obviously a 4 point difference between the two polls aren’t a big deal, but if Obama loses his lead completely and McCain starts to lead in the daily tracking, how are we to trust?

The fact that Obama has consistently held an advantage over McCain among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since early June suggests that he could very well win the election were it held today (depending on voter turnout patterns). The important question, however, and one addressed in detail Monday on Gallup.com, is whether his consistently narrow lead at this point in mid-summer bodes well for him in November.

In essence, the Gallup analysis finds that races that appear closely contested at the start of the summer tend to stay close for the duration of the campaign, up to and including Election Day. This describes the 2004, 2000, 1980, and 1960 elections.

More tomorrow…

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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