Gallup: Obama Up By 8
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansHe drops one today, but still retains a healthy lead over McCain.
Obama’s progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades. At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters.
Since I follow Gallup and Rasmussen daily, what I’ve noticed is that Gallup seems to swing quicker to wider margins. In other words, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to be more stable and represent more realistic opinion shifts.
Still, both polls had Obama bouncing while he was still in Europe, and I can’t help but think this trip helped sway some of those undecided voters who were unsure about his ability to handle national security issues.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Monday, July 28th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 28th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Rasmussen’s numbers seem to be more stable and represent more realistic opinion shifts.
Why do you say that? What’s the evidence?
News of Obama’s trip was _everywhere_ last week; shouldn’t there be some reaction seen?
July 28th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Since I follow Gallup and Rasmussen daily, what I’ve noticed is that Gallup seems to swing quicker to wider margins. In other words, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to be more stable and represent more realistic opinion shifts.
There’s a very good reason for that, and if you look more closely you should find it in very short order. Want hints? ;-)
July 28th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Oh, is it because Gallup is a 3 day poll and Rasmussen is a 5 day?
July 28th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Nope, that affects the trendline variability a bit but not the daily variability.
Gallup is registered voters and Rasmussen is likely voters. And as any old political demographer (and I resemble that remark) can tell you, the portion of registered voters who are not likely voters tend to tell pollsters whatever their Rice Krispies mentioned to them at breakfast. Thus, RV tracking polls always have higher variability than LV tracking polls.
Remember that a full 25% or more of registered voters NEVER VOTE. Ever. They fill out the registration form at the Driver’s License office and never go to the polls. Some are disinterested, some are illegal immigrants who are afraid to vote, whatever, they don’t vote and so their opinion has no bearing at all on the prediction of future elections.
July 28th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Gallup also uses a slightly smaller daily sample size, which also adds a touch of variability.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:25 am
[...] that Rasmussen polls “likely” voters, and Gallup polls “registered” voters. And to that point… Remember that a full 25% or more of registered voters NEVER VOTE. Ever. They fill out the [...]
July 29th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Those who are sold on Rasmussen numbers should consider one thing…..Rasmussen does NOT poll cell phones. There is a growing number of cell only users in the U.S. Cell users favor Obama about 2-1 over McCain (most cell only users are young….young pretty heavily favor Obama)