Gallup: Obama Up By 8
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, McCain, Palin, Polls, RepublicansBig news in both the Rasmussen and Gallup, as he hits 50% in Gallup’s, the first that’s happened. In Rasmussen he hit 51%.
Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama’s eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.McCain’s 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway.
Basically, I think people got a look at Palin and are really afraid. I know many of my counterparts here on Donklephant think the exact opposite is happening, but there’s a big difference between the base and the independent swing voters, and right now I think they’re freaked out by Palin and really can’t see this woman being leader of the free world.
More tomorrow…
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September 2nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Palin should have put aside her duties as a first term governor last year and began campaigning for President. By now, she would have racked up enough campaigning experience to qualify her as commander in chief, just like Obama has.
September 2nd, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Looks like other voters might be feeling the same way I do.
The way I look at it, the Palin choice has hurt McCain’s chances of getting my vote. Now I feel like he’s just a desperate politician who is trying to garner the PUMA demographic and that’s really his only reason for choosing her. And after all the stuff that comes out, it makes it look like he didn’t even check her background. McCain’s not appearing to be a very good decision-maker to me right now.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Your seeing both the coalescence of the Dems and the negative reaction among the independents to the Palin pick. McCain picked up support on the right with the pick but it was more than offset by the losses he is taking from the middle.
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
This is less than the expected bump for Obama post -Dem campaign pre- Rep campaign.
How little or how much vetting McCain did, is relevant only in the context of whether he did the GOP a disservice by selecting her. The vetting for the actual role will take place between now and Nov 4 by the voters. Exactly like how Obama was vetted in the press and and campaign, resulting in Democratic voters willing to overlook his complete lack of experience for the POTUS.
It is pretty presumptuous of anyone to assume they know the voters mind about Palin before that process has even started. All I have seen so far are those that have already made up their mind for Obama projecting their own views on the electorate at large. Does anyone thing that if McCain could document spending 1,000,000,000 man-hours vetting it would change either JG’s or Bubbles opinion?
The voters vetting process starts with her speech at the convention. She could screw up between now and election, or she could inspire confidence in the American people over the next two months.
Perhaps as an independent you may want to consider - oh - I dunno - keeping an open mind and seeing how she does for a few weeks?
As I have been saying for months, the first real read on polls will happen after both conventions are done. This polls today are only half a story. - mw
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
meant “convention” not “campaign”
September 2nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
MW: according to 538 the over/under for the bump is 6%. It looks to me that Obama is over.
September 2nd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
rob,
Ok lets check. Since JG helpfully provides us with all these polls we might as well use them. On a gallup to gallup comparison, Obama had stabilized at a 1 point lead prior to Palin, Biden, and the dem convention which looks to me like a reasonable baseline. So - you are right. If the over/under was 6, Obama exceeded expectations by 1 point going into the Rep convention. Which gives, I guess, Palin a -1 point effect so far.
Now if everyone is as deathly afraid of Palin as JG suggests, is it fair to assume that Obama will either maintain or increase that lead post Rep convention, after Palin has had a chance to speak to America? Conversely, if we get back to the same 1 point lead after the Rep convention, is it fair to say that Americans are taking a wait and see attitude with Palin?
Frankly, I am more worried about the effect tMcCain’s speech than Palin’s. He is such a terrible speaker.
September 2nd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
I dunno, it depends in large part part of how much of a lag you’re building in for the weekend and the holiday and the time it takes for folks to tune in and get up to speed.
This is about what I expected as the final convention bounce, in response to the Bill Clinton and Obama speeches. Somewhere in the neighborhood of a rise up to a 7-10 pt gap. Good speeches.
I expect the response to Palin is simply not reflected in these numbers, because it hasn’t happened yet and hasn’t been polled upon yet. Many or even most folks, who may well have watched Obama’s prime time thursday night speech and then taken off by lunchtime friday, still don’t know who the veep nom is, or have heard no more than a name.
I’d be very surprised if the numbers next Monday have not at least halfed this 8 point gap.
September 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
I would have thought the distraction to McCain and inability to keep up pressure on Obama given the Palin distraction is an equally viable reason for this uplift