Rasmussen: Obama Up By 5, 4
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in NewsWith leaners
Obama - 50%
McCain - 45%
Without leaners
Obama - 47%
McCain - 43%
The Palin speech has been playing well today, so the lead Obama/Biden could evaporate in the coming days. Personally, I don’t think the speech really addressed what moderates and independents wanted to hear from Palin, but it’s all speculation until we see the numbers fluctuate a bit.
Something interesting…Palin and Obama are nearly tied when it comes to who has more experience among indys…
[...] among unaffiliated voters, just 42% believe Obama has better experience than Palin to be President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say Palin has the edge on experience. Again, most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Palin’s well-received speech last night.
The 5 day w/leaners:
09/04/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 50%
09/03/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 50%
09/02/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 51%
09/01/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 49%
08/31/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 49%
The 5 day w/o leaners:
09/04/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 47%
09/03/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 48%
09/02/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 48%
09/01/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 47%
08/31/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 47%
More tomorrow…
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September 4th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
That is because it is true. The differences are marginal. Indies can see that because they are not wearing the partisan blinders of either side. The most interesting observation is that even an Obama supporter like JG continues to note and comment on comparisons of experience between the top of Dem ticket with the bottom of the Rep ticket. Just the fact that this comparison is being made continually is incredibly damaging to Obama, regardless of whether you think he has more experience.
September 4th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
The experience argument hurts McBush the most. If you buy Snide Sarah’s argument, then she is more qualified than McBush to be president because McBush has ZERO executive experience.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Those are the initials numbers mw. They’ll change.
Obama has already been through the longest presidential campaign in the history of our country. We met this woman about a week ago. And she’s supposed to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency?
Again, I think it hurts McCain FAR more than Obama because nobody knows anything about this woman.
But you go ahead and keep saying it’ll be incredibly damaging to Obama and we’ll see who’s right. :-)
September 4th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
mw - I agree. The Obama camp can’t allow a tit for tat between Obama and Palin. It’s a trap that Kerry fell into with Dick Cheney in 04. I don’t think Obama is as stupid as Kerry. We’ll see how they transition out of it. But in the meantime, his supporters should definitly keep the comparisons to a minimum. I thought the best observation coming out of the Palin speech was by Chris Mathews that the big surprise was that Palin’s speach had nothing to do with Hillary - or attracting her disaffected supporters. It was all about taking on Obama, grabbing some of his glow, and putting the two of them on an even playing field. Very smart move by the McCain guys, and the media is playing into it - draggin Obama down into Palin’s sandbox. He’s gotta get out and quick.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Obama may only have a 4% lead among likely voters, but according to http://www.270towin.com, he has an 84% chance of capturing 270 electoral votes. The race really isn’t as tight as these polls would lead one to believe.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
mw, mike, you’re right but wrong. They’re both experienced enough to possibly be qualified (experience is only one metric). The problem though is that it completely lays bare the argument McCain’s been making against Obama as nothing more than posturing. The comparison is a good one for the Obama team because either they’re both “experienced enough” in which case what is McCain’s argument against Obama, or they’re not, in which case McCain made a really poor choice, maybe even putting winning a election before having an effective government.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Yes, but either way the debate is about Palin’s experience vs. Obama’s expereince - and McCain sails right through looking like the only grown up in the bunch. On paper, the argument you propose looks like a winner for Obama, but the focus is wrong. This is definitely a loser for Obama, becuase people really don’t vote the VP (Dan Quayle). Obama must transition out of it, and watch how they do it. If they are smart (and they are) the Obama camp will end the dialog about community organizing vs. being the mayor of a small town. They will get the debate back to McCain v. Obama - mano a mano. (no sexism intended)
September 4th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
@khaki
Interesting site. State polling lags national polling, so I was wondering how current their polling data is. I clicked through on some of the key swing sites (Ohio, Pa, Fla). That map is based on 8/25 8/26 8/27 polls. So some of the data does not even reflect Obama’s speech, let alone the Palin selection, the Palin speech, McCain speech or any of the Rep convention.
We will get the first really useful national poll data next week. That will serve as a decent baseline although it will probably overstate Republican strength (we will still be within the Rep convention halo effect). The state data will not be reflected in the 270towin sites electoral map until a week or two after that. The site will be very interesting then, but right now - useless.
September 4th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I’m an independant, and I say that the fact that they are even polling about whether Obama has more experience than Palin is a very bad sign for Obama.
Who is he running against? Palin or McCain? See his problem?
September 4th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Honestly, I think people see it as a problem, but when you compare Obama’s experience to Palin’s, hers will fall apart. Especially when it comes to foreign policy.
Also, she hasn’t had the 20 month rectal exam that Obama has had. That will have an effect too.
I just don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as everybody thinks.
September 4th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
@Mike McEachran:
“Obama must transition out of it, and watch how they do it”
I think we are already seeing the transition, at least from the Obama campaign themselves. The DailyKos-ites of the world may well keep talking about Palin’s kids until November 5th, but thankfully for those of us in “the intelligent middle” it looks like the campaign is going the opposite way, and wants to get back to policy discussions: the official response to Palin’s speech seems to be basically that it was filled with personal attacks but lacking in ideas or policy. I think that is a setup for the fact that the Obama policy book will be hitting the bookstores on Tuesday. Hopefully that will push the narrative towards real debate of real topics, at least for a little while. That’s assuming, of course, that the “Policy Book”, which was written primarily by campaign staffers and consultants and not Obama, has actual policy in it, and not just “Hope”, and “Change”.
September 8th, 2008 at 6:32 am
[...] would be much of a convention bounce for the McCain/Palin ticket. In the Rasmussen tracking polls, the Democratic ticket was leading by 4-5 points depending upon whether or not “leaners” … In the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, Barack Obama and Joe Biden held a seven point lead over the [...]