Gallup: Obama Up By 4
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansGallup’s previously predicted that McCain’s lead wouldn’t change much this month, but yesterday and today’s numbers put the lie to that. Obama’s is just two points away from his post convention high, and McCain is just a few points from his lowest low.
What’s driving this? As if you even have to guess…
Separate Gallup tracking shows that consumer confidence has become significantly more negative as this week progressed, signifying that Americans are clearly paying attention to the major problems facing Wall Street and the big drops in the stock market on Monday and Wednesday.It is not possible to determine precisely how much of Obama’s gain this week may have been directly caused by Americans’ reactions to the economic stories dominating news coverage in newspapers, television, and on the Internet, although this is a plausible explanation.
Sure, there are other issues in this campaign, but Obama owns the economy right now, and with the bloom wearing off the Palin pick, swing voters are starting to get on board with the candidate they feel can steer this economy away from the rocks.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Thursday, September 18th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 18th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I think the economic news has to be QUITE bad for McCain. At this point, if I were Obama, I would make sure to say “crony capitalism” at every stop, during every appearance. Crony capitalism. Crony capitalism. Did I mention Crony capitalism?
During the last 3+ decades, our culture’s increased economic sophistication has led to a bit of a sea change in perceptions of how the economy works and what the government can do about it and so on. In this environment, the democrats have (deservedly) had more and more trouble demonizing business and wealthy people. Both because it’s more complicated than that, and because raising taxes doesn’t necessarily lead to increased gov’t revenue.
IOW, you can’t just disparage capitalism and fool Americans. They know there’s more to it than that. But the phrase “crony capitalism” neatly encapsulates all the things that middle class folks think are still wrong with capitalism. And it taps into middle class resentment about the alleged injustice of folks doing way better than them.
McCain, as a republican and a guy who has admitted economics is not a particular interest or strong suit, has trouble distancing himself from the imagined cronies in the idea “crony capitalism.” Because the perception is that low tax big business is the property of the GOP. Fair or not, way more folks are prone to presume that McCain has a bunch of cronies. He’s old, he’s been around for a long time, he’s a republican, and he has a smelly banking scandal in his past. Game, set, match.
It works against McCain the same way that foreign policy works against Obama because democrats own the peace and diplomacy dove franchise. Every day that the domestic economics keeps Iraq, Iran, et al off the front page is a very good day for Obama.
September 18th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I agree that the news in the financial markets and the blind panic selling in the stock market works very much against McCain and for Obama. If we are still in the grip of fear and panic on election day, this is all over, and Obama is our next president.
If on the other hand, rationality reasserts itself and if, as I expect, we have recovered last weeks market losses by then end of next week (half was recovered today) – the Obama “Fear and Panic” bounce will have evaporated by the week after that.
It will also be helpful if the McCain campaign and media call out Obama for his
campaign misinformationBALD FACE LIES !!!! blaming Republicans for this mess.[Sorry about that Justin - I forgot that the new Donklephant style guide requires contributing bloggers to repeatedly call every minor political exaggeration a LIE! LIE! LIE! I'll try to comply when commenting on Obama
misinformationLIES! in the future.]September 18th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Dear mw, how soon you forget about mr. phil gram of the de-regulate monopoly. He and John Mc were cut from the same cloth. Imagine, Barack calling mcain, gram and bush De-Regulators. Oh,the horror of it is unimaginable. But the republicans can say “BALD FACE LIES” about anything Barack says and everyone will think it gospel. NOT!!!! Pointing out history and the stripes you wore for 26 long years in the Senate is not “BALD FACE LIES”. It is merely stating the facts, Jack
September 18th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Actually a lot of Republican tactics can be attributed to this mess. What are some of the irresponsible policies between 2000 and 2006 we have seen? It really starts in 1999 when an act of more than 60 years (Glass-Steagall Act) was overturned by the _Gramm_-Leach-Bliley Act (please note one of McCain’s “economic” advisers) effectively removing the barrier between commercial and investment banks. Now, when the economy was bad, people who would usually put their money just in savings accounts (as opposed to investment accounts) would essentially be putting their money into dual accounts, allowing investment banks to avoid slumps but, as you might guess, putting many people’s savings at risk.
This act directly relates to the housing problem because banks that usually wouldn’t make loans to people for whatever reason (i.e. the loan was more than 3x their annual income) were now giving these loans because they could sell them to investment institutions who used people’s investments to finance the loan and the risk.
When it comes down to it, Democrats are not guilt-free of what has happened, though most would agree Republicans, or at least acts passed by and voted for predominantly by Republicans, have their share of blame to take.
September 18th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I think it’s a sad state of affairs when a junior senator with no real business background “owns” the economy in a Presidential race. We’ve got two duds on our hands, folks, so take the next four years to wake up and realize that our government is a result of our laziness, our willingness to consume panem et circenses while politicians focus their efforts on gathering and maintaining power. To paraphrase a movie, we are getting the government we deserve, not the government we need. There is no true representation of the common American in government anymore, and we need to change that. Sadly, neither of these two jokers is going to do it. /bitterness_off
September 18th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Kritter,
Not sure if this is what you meant, but Democrats who advocate for regulation and taxation are not in any way disparaging capitalism. Regulation is a perfectly natural tool used by capitalists to correct for market failures and taxation is a perfectly natural way of funding government spending. The amount of spending done (and therefore the amount taxed) is the discretion of the philosophy of the spenders, but even extremely high levels of taxation are still consistent under the philosophy of capitalism.
September 18th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Funny how it took a socialist response by the government, plans to create an entity to take the debt off the hands of the big banks to recover the losses in the market, once again the “free market” is getting rescued by socialism
September 18th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Guys,
All wonderful points, except when MW had to get all whinny on Justin, but i’ll add this. The part of this problem that is due to the current Republicans in charge is indeed smaller than general perception. The new Mortgage instruments that became the crux of the Sub-Prime debacle were indeed began during the Clinton era. They were a way to help more people afford mortgages to allow greater home ownership.
But since I mentioned Pres, Clinton, he did an intrvw on CNBC today and talked about this issue in detail, and I must say he is very knowledgeable about the market and what and why these problems exist. Compare that to anything I’ve ever heard from Pres. Bush, or what you hear Sen. McCain saying these days, and it is extremely obvious to the most casual observer who understands the issue. Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden clearly fall on the side of the well informed about this current economic crisis compared to Mr. Bush and Mr. McCain and I won’t even bother to mention Ms. Palin, b/c she obviously knows more than anyone else in the COUNTRY about this issue, like McCain said she does about the Energy situation.
So, I conclude, it’s all about credibility, my friends. Some got it, some don’t. Could this may be the un-bounce from the Sara Palin choice?
September 18th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Crony Capitalism! I love it! I hope Obama’s team reads this. Crony capitalism. Crony capitalism. crony capitalism.
September 18th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
McCain will spend big $$ to advertise false ads, then verbally endorse them and then cry and whine and whine and cry that the other side is doing it! UNREAL No more Bush, No more McCain, No Palin – no More BSing, insulting our intelligence and screwing us with a big stinkin grin on your face – the American citizens who are the backbone of this country deserve and demand better!
According to a CNN fact check, Obama’s tax plan would increase taxes in 2009 on the wealthiest 20 percent of households, while offering tax cuts for the other 80 percent. The largest increases would be on the top 1 percent of earners, according to analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group whose staff of experts includes former economic advisers to the White House and Congress under both Republicans and Democrats.
By comparison, the Tax Policy Center analysis says McCain would offer tax cuts across the board. Those at the top end of the scale would get the biggest percentage cuts under McCain, while households with the lowest incomes would receive the largest percentage cuts under Obama’s plan.
OBAMA ‘08
September 18th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Sorry, mw, but L is the one who is correct on this issue. The greatest pressure to end regulation of pretty much all business and the ideology that likes the idea comes from the Republican side. And this is what it leads to and it will always lead to debacles like this with only the details changing.
September 18th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Okay Mike,
So please explain to all of us how the party who favors deregulation across the board and controlled Congress from 1994 to 2006 and the White House for the past 7 years is NOT responsible for our current economic situation. I mean, just because you take a contrarian view to Obama doesn’t make your point correct.
Also, I have no problem if you start detailing what you think Obama is lying about. Then we can debate those claims on their merits and determine if they’re truly lies. But the Donklephant style guide discourages the continued use of all caps and multiple exclamation points. Just FYI.
September 18th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
These nationwide polls are good for gauging the mood of the moment, but the electoral-vote count (which is, of course, the only race that really matters in the end) is the way to go to see how the candidates are actually faring.
As of Thursday, 270towin.com has Obama leading the EV race 186-178, with 14 states and 174 EVs still in play, including a few that used to be considered “safe” for one party or the other (Virginia for the GOP, Minnesota and Washington for the Dems). But the biggest eyebrow-raiser of all might be Louisiana, shown as likely to break for McCain in the first post-Katrina presidential election, in spite of the Bush administration’s clumsy response to that disaster. Evidently Louisiana voters aren’t buying the “McCain = Bush’s third term” meme put forth by the Obama campaign.
September 23rd, 2008 at 11:01 am
Yes, Obama should say, “Crony capitalism” at every stop. Then McCain should run an ad quoting Obama decrying crony capitalism, then list out the Democrats who were the real cronies at Fannie and Freddie, then list the top campaign donation recipients from F&F. Obama is #2 on that list, only after Chris Dodd. And Obama’s record is all the more amazing since he’s been in the Senate such a short time and hasn’t been a committee chair with oversight of F&F.
So who are the cronies?