Meanwhile, In Afghanistan…
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Afghanistan, Barack, McCain
Things are getting extremely dire…
WASHINGTON — A draft report by American intelligence agencies concludes that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral” and casts serious doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to stem the rise in the Taliban’s influence there, according to American officials familiar with the document.The classified report finds that the breakdown in central authority in Afghanistan has been accelerated by rampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai and by an increase in violence by militants who have launched increasingly sophisticated attacks from havens in Pakistan.
The report, a nearly completed version of a National Intelligence Estimate, is set to be finished after the November elections and will be the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan. Its conclusions represent a harsh verdict on decision-making in the Bush administration, which in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks made Afghanistan the central focus of a global campaign against terrorism.
Note the part about Pakistan in there. This is why Obama is winning that argument. The “Talk Softly” strategy that McCain wants to employ simply isn’t an option because of how incredibly bad things are at this point.
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October 9th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Folks who are realistic about why we got ourselves involved in Iraq instead of “finishing the job” in Afghanistan must at least entertain the following notion:
To the extent that both Obama and McCain seem eager to increase American involvement in Afghanistan, I think they’re both insane. I’ve just been reading about the basics of Afghanistan in “The Sling and the Stone,” a book about fourth generation warfare (like Al Quaeda) and counterinsurgency tactics.
Here’s the thing. Compared to Afghanistan, Iraq is a walk in the park.
Iraq has 3 main subgroups (Shia, Sunni, Kurd). Afghanistan operates at a far more tribal level. In fact, the largest subgroup in Afghanistan actually counts more of its members as residents of Pakistan. Tell me THAT is not a problem. Several other subgroups also feel arguably more kinship with other nations(Tajikstan, Iran) than they do with the concept of Afghanistan.
Iraq had a functioning economy and something resembling a middle class before we invaded/liberated. Afghanistan has almost no economy other than opium poppies, and they have never had an especially strong central government capable of providing anything like a stable and consistent rule of law. How likely is it that the various somewhat independent tribes (at best, loosely confederated) feel the thirst of nationalism? I’m HIGHLY skeptical.
Let’s face it. Internationally speaking, Afghanistan has been stuck as a playing field for various international skirmishes for what, 3 decades? Its entire history?
We ought to be circumspect about both our intentions in and hopes for “Afghanistan.” How eager and invested should America be in the idea of a establishing a stable, democratic, unified place called Afghanistan? Surely no more eager than the poor bastards stuck living there.
Justin, I realize that because the election is nigh, your post concerns who is “winning the argument” about Afghanistan. So it’s worth noting that Americans of all political stripes would do well to understand the basics in making their judgments about this.
October 9th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
They really need some serious infrastructure. If americans are not willing to do that then they will never have a foothold in Afghanistan. The russians couldn’t do it.
October 9th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
We were sort of blessed that Afghanistan was in the midst of a 20 year civil war when we invaded. We just took the side against the Taliban and let them do the fighting. If we didn’t outsource our fighting to the tribal militias, then the carnage that we have seen in Iraq over the past few years would have been much worse in Afghanistan. In addition, the Tribal regions in Pakistan which are off limits to us, are the original home for the Taliban where they could reconstitute, grow, and stage all of the violence from.
But don’t worry. Barry will fix it, without “fanning the flames of extremism” the way Bush does, simply because the Muslim world will like him better.
October 9th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Straw man argument….You are assuming that the goal in Afghanistan is the same as the goal in Iraq.
No one is proposing we go into Afghanistan and build a democracy or bring freedom or find weapons of mass destruction or whatever the hell Bush is saying this week.
The idea is to refocus in Afghanistan, get bin Laden and crush Al queda’s base of operations. This is far more attainable then building a nation or creating a democracy.