Gallup: Obama Up By 6
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, PollsMcCain continues to close the gap today in the registered model and the likely voter models.
First registered…
Now likely…
Gallup again explains the distinction between the likely voter models…
Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The “expanded” model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today’s results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll’s margin of error.
Which is more accurate? Well, while McCain is only down 2 in the traditional model, Gallup saw fit to create a new model, so that should give us some indication that they’re not exactly trusting the old model.
Also, Pollster has Obama’s lead at 7.5% and Real Clear Politics has it at 6.8%. So I’m going to go with the total aggregate again and guess that Gallup’s expanded likely model is producing more accurate results.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Thursday, October 16th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
