Gallup: Obama Up By 11
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, PollsMcCain drops one today to give Obama his biggest lead to date in the Gallup tracking…
Obama is also widening his lead in the likely voters models…
Gallup’s modeling of likely voters indicates the race is somewhat tighter if we assume that voter turnout patterns will be similar to those seen in most presidential elections from 1952 through 2004.Using this “traditional” definition of likely voters, which takes into account respondents’ history of voting as well as their current interest in the campaign and self-reported likelihood of voting, Obama leads McCain by five points, 50% to 45%. This is slightly better than the two- to three-point leads he held among this group late last week.
An alternative expanded likely voter model shows what would happen if turnout reflects voters’ self-reported likelihood of voting and campaign interest, but is not assumed to be dependent on their voting history. Under that scenario, Obama leads by 9 points, 52% to 43%.
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Monday, October 20th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, McCain, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
