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No More PUMAs?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans

Remember those Hillary supporters who claimed they’d never support Obama?

Well, now Obama’s support among his base is stronger than McCain’s. That doesn’t mean Dems aren’t voting for McCain, but the numbers are falling much more in line with traditional base models.

FiveThirtyEight has the numbers:

DEMS/GOP – Pollster
86/87 – Rasmussen
88/83 – IBD-TIPP
87/89 – Research 2000
91/84 – ABC/Post
87/84 – Zogby
89/85 – Battleground

88/85.3 – 2008 Average

89/93 – 2004 Average
86/91 – 2000 Average

But here’s what should concern McCain…

If Obama wins by the same margin among Democrats that McCain does among Republicans (and to reiterate, right now Obama is doing a bit better within his own party), and Rasmussen’s most recent party ID breakdown is correct (D 39.7, R 33.0, I 27.3), then McCain will need to win independents by about 20 points to earn a draw in the popular vote.

Yikes.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 21st, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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