And you know if they’re cutting ad spending, they’re most likely conceding those states to the Obama camp.
While station managers in the affected states said they were not ruling out the possibility that Mr. McCain would pump money back in before election day, on Nov. 4, the move represents a stark reordering of priorities.
Democrats were predicting Mr. McCain would use the savings to increase his advertising in Pennsylvania and, possibly, Ohio and Florida, all of which have become that much more vital should Mr. McCain have to concede states like Colorado and Wisconsin.
By our very rough reckoning, based on what he spent in those states last week according to advertising monitoring firm CMAG, the move should free up an additional $2 million that Mr. McCain can now spend in Pennsylvania, or wherever else.
Okay, so let’s ignore New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine or a moment. Because hidden inside of this news is a bombshell and it is this: McCain is conceding Colorado.
If that’s the case, and you give Obama all the states Kerry won in 2004, that puts him over the top with 273 electoral votes.
So it’s now apparent that McCain’s strategy is to capture Pennsylvania. That’s why you heard him spouting that nonsense yesterday about PA being the “most God-loving, most patriotic part of America.”
And maybe this is why Governor Ed Rendell is nervous…
“I don’t want to be selfish. But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”
My question: why? Because as I look around at the story the polling is showing, PA is SOLIDLY blue this election cycle.
Here take a look at Pollster’s numbers…
And then look at FiveThirtyEight’s projections…
There’s almost no way McCain can turn around this lead. He’s chasing electoral ghosts in Pennsylvania, hoping that somehow the working class white vote will turn around and overwhelmingly support the party that’s dismantled their economic prospects over the past eight years.
Meanwhile, look at Colorado’s numbers…
And FiveThirtyEight’s projections…
Colorado is obviously still extremely doable. So why is McCain pulling ad spending in this state in favor of PA? Is it because that ad market is close to OH, WV and VA and he needs to hold his ground in those states too?
Somebody explain this to me because I can’t make ANY sense of this strategy.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008 and is filed under Bad Decisions, Barack, Colorado, McCain, Money, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.