McCain Cutting Ad Spending In WI, NH, MN, ME And…CO?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Bad Decisions, Barack, Colorado, McCain, Money, Pennsylvania, Polls

And you know if they’re cutting ad spending, they’re most likely conceding those states to the Obama camp.

Here’s more from The Caucus…

While station managers in the affected states said they were not ruling out the possibility that Mr. McCain would pump money back in before election day, on Nov. 4, the move represents a stark reordering of priorities.

Democrats were predicting Mr. McCain would use the savings to increase his advertising in Pennsylvania and, possibly, Ohio and Florida, all of which have become that much more vital should Mr. McCain have to concede states like Colorado and Wisconsin.

By our very rough reckoning, based on what he spent in those states last week according to advertising monitoring firm CMAG, the move should free up an additional $2 million that Mr. McCain can now spend in Pennsylvania, or wherever else.

Okay, so let’s ignore New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine or a moment. Because hidden inside of this news is a bombshell and it is this: McCain is conceding Colorado.

If that’s the case, and you give Obama all the states Kerry won in 2004, that puts him over the top with 273 electoral votes.

So it’s now apparent that McCain’s strategy is to capture Pennsylvania. That’s why you heard him spouting that nonsense yesterday about PA being the “most God-loving, most patriotic part of America.”

And maybe this is why Governor Ed Rendell is nervous…

“I don’t want to be selfish. But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”

My question: why? Because as I look around at the story the polling is showing, PA is SOLIDLY blue this election cycle.

Here take a look at Pollster’s numbers…

And then look at FiveThirtyEight’s projections…

There’s almost no way McCain can turn around this lead. He’s chasing electoral ghosts in Pennsylvania, hoping that somehow the working class white vote will turn around and overwhelmingly support the party that’s dismantled their economic prospects over the past eight years.

Meanwhile, look at Colorado’s numbers…

And FiveThirtyEight’s projections…

Colorado is obviously still extremely doable. So why is McCain pulling ad spending in this state in favor of PA? Is it because that ad market is close to OH, WV and VA and he needs to hold his ground in those states too?

Somebody explain this to me because I can’t make ANY sense of this strategy.


This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008 and is filed under Bad Decisions, Barack, Colorado, McCain, Money, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “McCain Cutting Ad Spending In WI, NH, MN, ME And…CO?”

  1. bubbles Says:

    Maybe all those rumors about McCain potentially switching parties or wanting to run with Kerry are true, and that he sought the nomination in 2008 only to lose it and let a Democrat into the White House, whom he will then ask for a cabinet position.

  2. NYkrinDC Says:

    Nate at FiveThirtyEight provides two interesting theories which you don’t mention in your post.

    1) The senior staff seems to think it has convinced McCain to drop his reluctance to play the race card, with trial balloons afloatin’ that Obama’s ex-reverend will get an encore in the coming days in negative ads and such.

    And if they’re really going to go there – to try to make the campaign about race and, specifically, some white people’s fears of pigmentation – then it would make total sense for McCain to temporarily ignore Colorado, where that message ain’t gonna hunt, and shift focus to Appalachia and the South: Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and, yes, Pennsylvania and even Florida being the swing states where racially charged politics have sometimes, in the past, worked for the Republicans, or, in Appalachia, where they worked for the Clintons during the primaries.

    Nate’s own theory:

    2) My guess is that something like this happened: they ran their usual set of internal polls over the weekend, and saw themselves 5 points down in Colorado and Virginia. 8 points down in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and 10 points down in Iowa and New Mexico. But perhaps Pennsylvania came in at a -6 or something — not much worse than the others — and they decided: why worry about all those states when we can worry about just this one.

    My own take is that the campaign knows, as most people have said, that the race is going to tighten as we near November 4. By focusing on Penn, as the race tightens across the country, and Penn begins to close, they’ll claim that McCain has momentum going into Nov. 4. This would be better, if they can shift some polls to McCain’s favor since then that momentum will seem more palpable and hope that other states follow suit.

    Past that, I’m still trying to figure out their end game.

  3. Peet Says:

    If you want to steal an ellection the gap between the two candidates has to be small enough so that the general public will believe that the win was possible for McCain.

    It´s that simple.

  4. David Gerard Says:

    MAN ON FIVE, Cook County, Monday — The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error.

    “Democrat voting fraud is famous since Tammany Hall,” says Republican strategist Karl Rove. “So we’ll win without votes.”

    Voting machines have been remotely reset and the counts adjusted. “Diebold have come to the party big time.” Touch screen machines for West Virginia early voting offer voters “McCAIN” or “REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER.”

    The rolls will be thoroughly checked for voter fraud. “If the typeface or font size is different on their driver’s licence, Social Security or the voter roll, that’s obvious blatant fraud. A typical Liberal knife to the heart of democracy.”

    The party will check for dead voters as well. “We’re making the safe assumption that all registered Democrats are dead. If they’re not, we’ll correct that.” Governor Palin has long dealt with Democrat moose in Alaska. “You betcha!”

    All residents of properties whose mortgages were underwritten by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will be assumed to have voted Republican. “We own the houses, of course we own the votes. It’s nonsense to say otherwise.”

    Finally, under USA-PATRIOT, Obama supporters will be deemed associates of associates of terrorists. The offence will carry a penalty of one day’s imprisonment: November 4th.

    Mr Rove is confident in the future of our democracy. “One man, one vote. That man being me.”

    Source: http://tinyurl.com/5cc3ve

  5. Erick Says:

    It’s not a crazy idea at all when you consider the sheer volume of voters, overwhelmingly Democratic, being purged from the rolls. What’s astonishing is that there’s no national coverage of the purges. My guess is that Colorado is going to remain red despite what the majority of voters say.

  6. David Gerard Says:

    @Erick – then please spread the link!

  7. Erick Says:

    Hi David Gerard,

    I take it nobody watched Rachel Maddow last night? She reported that up to 19% of Colorado’s Democrats have been purged from the voter rolls. Bobby Kennedy Jr. was the guest, his latest article the subject.

    The article, ‘How to Block the Vote’: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote

    The show: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27313887#27313887

  8. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Barack buying the election? Says:

    [...] disparity in spending is just jaw dropping. Pundits and bloggers speculate about McCain pulling back advertising budgets in Michigan and other states. What do they expect? He [...]

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