Mason/Dixon: Race Tight In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, McCain, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Polls

A bit of a surprise today, especially with the Pennsylvania and Minnesota numbers. Because I think this is one of the first polls I’ve seen that suggests those races are even close.

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Minnesota: Obama + 8
Obama: 48%
McCain: 40%

Arizona: McCain +4
McCain: 48%
Obama: 44%

Frankly, I don’t buy the PA or MN numbers since they are the first to show a really tight race. Especially when you have roughly 10% undecideds in your sample at this point.

Still, Mason/Dixon is well respected, which is why I chose to share it all with you.

Prediction: Obama will take Pennsylvania and Minnesota. McCain will take Arizona.

You heard it here first! :-)


This entry was posted on Thursday, October 30th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, McCain, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

3 Responses to “Mason/Dixon: Race Tight In Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona”

  1. Dennis Sanders Says:

    Justin,

    Minnesota Public Radio has Obama up by 20 points.

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/29/obama_leads_minnesota_poll/

  2. Andy Says:

    Yeah, I wouldn’t buy into the MN numbers too much since McCain is reducing his ads there. I think it’s understandable that PA would tighten. The state was very close in 2000 and 2004 and McCain is seemingly making it Waterloo. I think the idea that Obama would win there by double digits was always a little foolish. Still, McCain is down 4 points (at best, apparently) in a state that has become must-win.

  3. Avinash_Tyagi Says:

    Mason Dixon has a Republican house effect, so I would take these with a large grain of salt, even the Arizona one, which is probably closer than four points

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