Seems to me Mubarak’s goose was cooked as soon as it became clear that the military was unwilling to intervene forcefully on his behalf.
They may still decide to intervene forcefully, but only on behalf of restoring a semblance of civil order. If they do that, I expect we’ll see some “provisional” government led by General Somebody, with Mubarak doing a perp walk.
I’m glad the US hasn’t interjected itself forcefully. This needs to be about Egypt first and foremost, which means that we avoid the appearance of anointing a winner. Hopefully we’ll be able to help out with fostering a somewhat peaceful transition to a new government that the people can feel is legitimate.
Hopefully, Egyptians will understand that democracy is harder than it looks. But as this juncture, it seems that whatever unity exists is negative: against Mubarak. Coalescing patiently around a concrete positive vision is much harder.