Year Old Iran Nuke NIE Released
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in IranApparently their nuke program has been stalled since 2003. Bush and company have known this for a good year now, but have still been beating the war drums.
Iran is continuing to produce enriched uranium, a program that the Tehran government has said is designed for civilian purposes. The new estimate says that enrichment program could still provide Iran with enough raw material to produce a nuclear weapon sometime by the middle of next decade, a timetable essentially unchanged from previous estimates.But the new estimate declares with “high confidence” that a military-run Iranian program intended to transform that raw material into a nuclear weapon has been shut down since 2003, and also says with high confidence that the halt “was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure.”
The estimate does not say when American intelligence agencies learned that the weapons program had been halted, but a statement issued by Donald Kerr, the principal director of national intelligence, said the document was being made public “since our understanding of Iran’s capabilities has changed.”
I guess what we’re saying is we now realize that they’re really trying to build an energy program instead of a weapons program? Is that how we should read this?
Response from the White House…
Today’s National Intelligence Estimate offers some positive news. It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen.But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem. The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically — without the use of force — as the Administration has been trying to do. And it suggests that the President has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests while ensuring that the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran.
The bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran — with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure — and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution.
That’s fair, but again, why are we only seeing this NIE now? Why have Bush and Cheney pushed the meme that Iran could start World War III?
Regardless, Iran is off the table as far as a target goes. At least for now.
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December 3rd, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Gee I wonder why they decided to stop in 2003….
December 3rd, 2007 at 4:26 pm
From IranAffairs.com:
WHy should we believe that Iran EVER had a nuclear weapons program at all?
December 3rd, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Justin: Why?
Bush’s Middle East policy is basically a secular variation on Pascal’s Wager, substituting “WMDs in Iraq/Iran” for “the existence of God”. The key to Pascal’s Wager, of course, isn’t the probability of our being right, but the consequences of being wrong.
If we believe Iran has nuclear weapons, take military action and then find out we were wrong, well, Iraq has shown us how that goes. But if we believe they don’t have nuclear weapons and later find out the hard way that we were wrong about that, the consequences are far, far worse, not to mention a lot closer to home. Those who opposed the invasion of Iraq before March 2003 never were quite able to satisfactorily address this “consequence gap”, and so far neither have those against military action against Iran. Until someone does, expect Bush (and his successor, perhaps even if s/he’s a Dem) to keep on beating those war drums.
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Well, considering Pascal’s wager, we should immediately nuke Canada.
They have technology which “could be” use to make nukes. We can’t wait for the mushroom cloud!
December 4th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
I want to know how far along did Iran get with their nuclear weapons program? How much knowledge do they currently have to weaponize nuclear material once it is refined? If enough uranium has been refined to build a bomb sometime in the future, how long will it take to build a bomb if they decide to resurrect the weapons program then?
Is Bush’s insistence that Iran is procuring Uranium in order to build a bomb contradicted by anything in the report? Iran had a nuclear weapons program and suspended it. This report acknowledges that it can happen again at the drop of a dime (a weaponizing program would mostly be engineers in office buildings drafting stuff on computers anyway).
It seems that the whole argument is about Bush’s choice of rhetoric describing Iran’s intentions. Does this report prove that Iran is not a threat in the future?
By the way Hass, If the Canadian government sponsored terrorists killing Americans, the PM claimed he was going to wipe Alaska off the map, and lobbed ballistic missiles into populated American cities…We should at least engage Canada before nuking them. Don’t you think?
BTW…Have we attacked Iran yet? No. So keep your panties on.
Also SF is right. Does anyone expect the media to bring up the point that Bush was president when Iran decided to halt their program? That it occurred around the same time Lybia stopped theirs, and that the iraq war might have had something to do with it? Cowboy diplomacy vindicated?
December 4th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
Giuliani, McCain, Romny, Huckabee, Duncan are all kooks.
Today, the best intelligence organizations that the United States has, came to the conlusion that Iran had no nuclear weapons program since 2003. Meanwhile, talk radio, the network news, and the nation’s leading newspapers all pushed the Iran Nuclear crisis almost to the point of sending a pre-emptive Nuclear strike on Iran. The entire Republican field with the exception or Ron Paul, and even most of the Democrat candidates pushed this dangerous position. Are these people really cool, calm and collected enough to be the Commander & Chief? Obviously recent statements tell us no. So who do we choose for President now, it looks like Ron Paul was not a kook after all, but rather a majority of the other candidates willing to nuke a country over something they did not understand or have the ability to comprehend were.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:12 am
OK Jimmy, so correct me if I am wrong reading this
We basically must proceed on the path we are on, because we cannot trust the intelligence report, but we could initiate the path we are on by trusting the original intelligence?
So basically, we trust Bush no matter what (noting he has not gotten anything right since Afghanistan) ?
whoa
That’s a pretty nice world you have built for yourself there. It basically means you do what you feel like doing and facts be damned.
Nice spin.
December 5th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
gerryf,
Where did you get that Idea? The report says the nuclear weapons program was halted in 2003. Nobody disputes they are still enriching uranium. Are you saying we should allow Iran to continue to enrich Uranium unfettered, against prior international agreements, because you trust the terror-supporting apocalyptic regime will not resurrect the program sometime in the future when enough nuclear material becomes available for a bomb?
Also, the NIE previously said that Iraq had WMD in 2002 and that the Iranian regime is currently sending terrorists and munitions into Iraq. You seem to be the one who accepts national intelligence estimates only when its convenient for you, facts be damned.
December 5th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
actually, I have no problem with being skeptical about the NIE–I am just equally — if not moreso– skeptical about this administration’s ability to accurately interpret this or any other intelligence.
You seem willing to accept whatever interpretation happens to be convenient for this group to further its agenda,
Whatever you take out of reading the NIE, you have to admit the administration has been hyping the Iran threat–therein is the problem. The Bush administration HAD this information for months.
Let me repeat
THEY HAD THIS INFORMATION FOR MONTHS but continued to hype the “Iran threat”
You already know I oppose an Iran with nuclear weapons, as we have discussed before, so claiming we should allow Iran to continue enriching uranium is mere sophistry.
Where you and I differ is that I don’t want this group to be running the show when it comes to dealing with Iran. They are unreliable, untrustworthy and ultimately incompetent.
You continue to support them no matter what. We simply cannot take you seriously anymore.
December 5th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
This NIE report states:
and…
In 1994, North Korea halted their nuclear weapons program, but later cheated on their agreement and now they have stocked an arsenal.
I have no reason to doubt this intelligence that Iran suspended ins weaponizing program in 2003, but to do that you must accept that Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. The intent is there, but the program has been halted, yet the regime continues to enrich fuel when they could have purchased fuel from Russia for a cost drastically less than what they are spending now.
Then whats your problem here? You seem to agree that uranium enrichment is a precursor to restarting the weapons program, so is it Bush’s choice of words that bothers you? You seem to think there is an Iranian threat, yet you are frustrated when Bush hypes the “Iranian threat” I don’t get it.
We haven’t gone to war or lobbed missiles yet, is it the “sabre rattling” itself that bothers you? Consider that all of Bush’s “sabre rattling” in 2003 had a positive effect, since he was the president at the time when Iran decided to halt the program. The invasion of Iraq must have had some influence as well, considering the timing.
If you are really worried that Bush might strike, just remember we only have 1 year left of him (thank God), and Israel would probably strike before us anyway. But also remember, 2010 is only 2 years away. Time is running out to make a decision.
December 21st, 2007 at 5:09 am
Let israel and its agents fight their own wars.— They should NOT use American GIs as their gendarmes. As they are doing in Iraq todays.
Even if it were true that IRAn has nuclear arms, it thretens Israel, not usa. Why should we fights Israels wars?
December 21st, 2007 at 5:12 am
Let Israel fight her own wars. Instead of using American GIs as their gendarmes.
Iran with nuclear bombs threaten none but Israel. NOT us the Americans.
December 21st, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Keeper wrote, “Even if it were true that IRAn has nuclear arms, it thretens Israel, not usa. Why should we fights Israels wars?”
Moronic statement, if I ever heard one!
If IRAN…better yet…WHEN Iran gets nuclear weapons - if we were to listen to those that contend we should go about our business, ignore them and sit back and wait - that fateful day, the whole world’s safety will be in jeopardy. You seem to have an ax to grind clouding your judgement.
December 21st, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Jimmy: “Does anyone expect the media to bring up the point that Bush was president when Iran decided to halt their program? That it occurred around the same time Lybia stopped theirs, and that the iraq war might have had something to do with it? Cowboy diplomacy vindicated?”
Nope. Not only the M.M. These people are so bent on their goals, they refuse to credit President Bush for any positive attainment. All they ever do is bellyache and squawk that this or that is his fault.
It’d fill a book to list all the roorbacks that have been spewed and “validated” by the media just to tar and feather the President. It’s all about gaining power and control.
December 22nd, 2007 at 1:47 am
Elisabetta is the one who seems to have an axe to grind. Lets protect Israel at any cost— that seems to be her motto, just as it the motto of Jimmie the Dhimmi.
Its the neo-con gang, more appropriately, the “Zion-Con” gang who claims that Iran can’t be trusted with N-weapons, while Israel, India, Pakistan or evn USA can be trusted. Remember! It was USA which is planning to drop bunker-uster N-bombs on Iranian Nuclear targets.
Lets protect USA! Let israel protect its own. Lets NOT allow the Israel’ amen corner in USA to shd American lives for Israel in Iran, just as they have been sacrificing American lives in Iraq for Israel.