Ron Paul’s Loss Could Be Mike Bloomberg’s Gain
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, BloombergFirst, why Ron Paul’s loss? Because if he doesn’t go 3rd party, somebody will. A perfect storm for a 3rd party candidate is on the radar and all signs point to it turning into a category 5. Especially if the nominees are Giuliani (or Romney) and Clinton.
So how could Bloomberg benefit?
Well, since Paul is definitely going to compete in primaries he won’t win, he may have NO shot at running in those same states as a 3rd party candidate. Reason being are the Sore Loser Laws. You see, in some states, if you run in their primary and lose you can’t run in the general election. That could prove to be an impossible obstacle to overcome and I’m sure Paul knows it.
Here’s more on Bloomberg from WSJ:
As Democratic and Republican presidential hopefuls stumped in Iowa and New Hampshire Monday, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was in China talking about entrepreneurship. The setting was different, but the goal may have been the same. Those close to Mr. Bloomberg said the 65-year-old billionaire is considering a White House bid, despite his repeated denials. Moreover, friends and advisers said, developments make a candidacy more conceivable.Shifts atop the polls for both parties in early-voting states suggest uncertainty among some voters about the current crop of candidates, while an increasingly nasty campaign could badly bruise whomever comes out on top, Mr. Bloomberg’s supporters said. Gridlock in Congress could open the door for Mr. Bloomberg’s nonpartisan message. At the same time, national polls show voters worrying more about the economy and less about Iraq — a trend that plays to Mr. Bloomberg’s strengths.
So what are the best possible circumstances for Bloomberg to enter?
One scenario — and the one aides are hoping for — would be a race between fellow New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Sen. Clinton’s negative rating is the highest in either party, while Mr. Giuliani’s is the highest among Republicans. That match-up could make what supporters see as Mr. Bloomberg’s “above the fray” image more appealing. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani are also seen as moderate on social issues, which could mute opposition to Mr. Bloomberg from the religious right. “If the parties nominate polarizing candidates…then there’s plenty of room” for Mr. Bloomberg, independent pollster John Zogby said.Another scenario that would provide an opening would be if both parties nominate candidates from outside the center — John Edwards on the Democratic side, for example, or Republican Mike Huckabee, who leads polls in Iowa and is surging in national surveys. In such a case, Mr. Bloomberg would seek to appeal to moderates. “The terrain that he would look to run on is dead center of the highway,” said William Cunningham, Mr. Bloomberg’s first-term communications director.
Also, remember that lunch meeting with Barack? That signals to me that if he became the nominee, Bloomberg may not run because their messages of “the system is broken” are more in line with each other. Just a hunch, but that’s probably the case.
Still, could he raise the level of excitement that Ron Paul has done? I highly doubt it. And that may ultimately be Bloomberg’s test for himself. Because with a 3rd party candidate you’re going to need more than money to persuade the nation you’re the right man for the job. You need ideas.
Logistically, he’d probably wait until early summer to launch a candidacy in earnest. That way people will be excited by his ideas, whatever they may be. Also, by that time, people will be VERY tired of the D & R candidates, their ideas and even just their faces. This long campaign season will definitely play right into Bloomberg’s hands.
Interesting times ahead…
This entry was posted on Thursday, December 13th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Bloomberg. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 13th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Dear Justin,
Most of the Ron Paul supporters that I know would rather be water-boarded than have to vote for Bloomberg!
From my perspective Bloomberg has a greater chance of flying to Mars with Hillary than he would of attracting the impassioned Ron Paul supporters.
At this point, Ron Paul has as good of a chance as anyone to win the nomination, especially with the upcoming TeaParty “MoneyBomb” this Sunday the 16th!
Watch for the stealthy PrimaryBomb to go off as well!
December 13th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Bloomberg’s win will come from naming his VP as Ron Paul.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Why not Kucinich going third party? Is that out of the question for some reason? Why always RP?
December 13th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
I saw this post earlier, but it took me a while to comment. I’ve been rolling around on the floor laughing hysterically at the thought of Michael Bloomberg gaining even one tenth of the grassroots support Ron Paul already has.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
sore loser laws may not prevent Ron Paul independent run….
ran across this discussion of sore loser laws at
http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/01/12/sore-loser-laws-dont-generally-apply-to-presidential-candidates/
“Only four states maintain that their “sore loser†laws apply to president: South Dakota, Mississippi, Ohio and Texas. After LaRouche won in court against Ohio in 1992, Ohio amended its “sore loser†law in 1993 to specifically apply to presidential candidates. No precedents have been set in Mississippi or South Dakota. In Texas, unfortunately, in 1996 the Constitution Party filed a lawsuit against Texas to get a ruling that the “sore loser†law doesn’t apply to president. The federal judge who got the case, James Nowlin, refused to enjoin Texas’ interpretation that the “sore loser†law does apply to president. The denial of injunctive relief is reported as US Taxpayers Party v Garza, 924 F Supp 71 (1996).”
December 13th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
This is stupid nonsense!
Every time Paul is asked this he says he won’t run because the SYSTEM IS RIGGED AGAINST 3RD PARTIES! Don’t take his word for it just ask any Libertarian, Green, Socialist or Patriot. State laws all but make it impossible. The signature requirements to get on the ballots are hard enough without the other parties hiring lawyers to challenge them.
On top of that most journalists are trained that any party other than D or R is fringe and they are afraid to be seen interviewing these candidates.
People who ask about or suggest an independent run are pathetically naive about the political system we have in this country.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Idiocy!!! Why is it so hard for the Old Media, yes DonkeyPunch, you are still lumped in with the suits at this point, to realize that it is Dr. Paul’s MESSAGE that resonates with the peeps. No other candidate will raise the money or get the people out to vote like Dr. Paul will and has. I was in Council Bluffs Iowa for the rally on Tuesday. All other candidates CANCELLED their events that day and night. But, not Dr. Paul. He had his and there were 600 + that came out in the snow and ice to hear the message of FREEDOM and LIBERTY.
This grassroots will go thru a brick wall to vote for this guy.
TeaPary07!! RPFTFW!!!
December 13th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Why would any of Ron Paul supporters vote for Bloomberg? Ron Paul is in a class by himself. “When Ron Paul walks into the ocean he doesn’t get wet, the ocean gets RonPauled”. It’s just that simple. We are united for Ron Paul only. P.S. Craig: I was laughing at this post myself. Bloomberg couldn’t get one tenth of one tenth of the grassroots support of Ron Paul.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
“since Paul is definitely going to compete in primaries he won’t win”
You are the biggest idiot on the internet. Before you report on politics do your research. Ron Paul is the front runner. He won 25 out of 41 straw polls last I checked. After Sunday he will have more money than any other Republican (even Romney who donates to himself).
December 13th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Nice hit piece… the only problem is that Dr. Pauls supporters tend to agree with his positions, a nanny state proponent like Bloomberg is the complete opposite of Dr. Paul.
December 13th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Bloomberg is the same cookie cutter big government type as Rudy/Hillary. He wouldn’t get any of Dr. Paul’s support. When will people learn that its the message that draws people to Dr. Paul, not some kind of trickery, or baseless emotion, or “protest voting” or whatever the gimmick that the media comes up this week to explain the popularity of the freedom/Constitution message.
December 13th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Justin,
I am curious, are you still sticking to your end of October prediction that Ron Paul MIGHT raise $8 million in the fourth quarter?
When are you going to stop underestimating this movement?
If we raise $ 20 million this quarter, will you stop?
Howard Dean lost because of his crazy rant on national TV being played over and over and over.
All we are saying, is give Paul a chance.
December 13th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
These guys just don’t get it. They really don’t get it. Let’s just say… If Ron Paul doesn’t become the next President, I really feel sorry any and all politicians. This movement is huge. We are making changes in politics right now and will continue to do so. Ron Paul cured our apathy.
December 13th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Time to say it again – stop feeding this troll. Justin has a wonderful record of being incorrect on almost every prediction he has made. He only posts controversial things to get web traffic and $$. This will be the last time I visit Donklephant, and I hope all Ron Paul supporters do the same. Visit dailypaul.com or ronpaulforums, or better yet, get off your computer and spread the word about Ron Paul.
Thank you.
December 13th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
I agree that this could indeed be a perfect storm for a third party candidate. I don’t agree that that candidate is Bloomberg or Kucinich or even Ron Paul.
Several weeks ago, Phillies 2008 paid for a national poll that showed surprising and very encouraging results for both the Libertarian Party and Dr. Phillies’ campaign.
The telephone survey of 1000 Likely Voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on November 8 and 11, 2007. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC.
The first poll question: There are many political parties in the United States with that have various beliefs on each issue. Generally speaking, which political party do your views come closest to…. the Republican party, the Democratic party, the Libertarian party or are you truly independent?
a. Republican
b. Democrat
c. Libertarian
d. Some other political party
e. You are truly independent
f. Not sure
LV’s Male Female
Republican 31% 34% 28%
Democrat 37% 31% 44%
Libertarian 6% 8% 4%
Some other
political party 8% 10% 5%
You are truly
independent 16% 16% 15%
Not sure 3% 1% 4%
6% may not seem significant, but you have to look at the delta since the last Presidential election, when we failed to poll at even 0.6%. That’s huge, considering there has been no major recruitment campaign.
But of even greater interest is the fact that when compared against then frontrunners Clinton and Giuliani, George Phillies and his Libertarian stances drew a surprising 12% of the support from the 1000 likely voters polled. The pertinent questions were:
“In thinking about the next Presidential election, suppose you had a
choice between Republican Rudy Giuliani, who promises to cut taxes
and win the war on terror and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who promises
to dtrengthen the middle class and provide universal health care. If
the election were held today would you vote for Republican Rudy
Giuliani or Democrat Hillary Clinton?”
Clinton 48%
Giuliani 39%
“some other candidate” 9%
4% not sure.
BUT…
“Okay and suppose you had a choice between Republican Rudy Giuliani,
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Libertarian George Phillies, who
promises to end the War in Iraq, secure the borders and restore civil
rights. If the election were held today would you vote for Republican
Rudy Giuliani, Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian George
Phillies?”
Clinton 41%,
Giuliani 34%
“some other candidate” 7%
“not sure” 6%
Libertarian front-runner George Phillies 12%
That is higher than any Libertarian has ever polled in the past.
December 13th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Justin come on! Pretty soon I’m going to need boots up to my neck to wade through all your BS! Why would Paul supporters support Bloomberg, a statist, socialist who’ll only hurt the Democrats? I say let Bloomberg run 3rd party to his heart’s content. Where would he get his support from? Certainly not from Paul supporters, who’ll stay home or write-in Paul’s name if he doesn’t run 3rd party (and he shouldn’t).
December 13th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
This Bloomberg thing is a mystery to me. He is basically a wealthy liberal. What constituency does he serve that is not already covered by Rudy or Hillary? No, I’m not being facetious. Seriously what is the draw? I haven’t seen any signs saying ‘Run, Bloomie, Run.’ I’m just a simple Ron Paul supporter, but (other than his considerble personal fortune) why is he even being discussed?
Peace be with you.
December 13th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
“I agree that this could indeed be a perfect storm for a third party candidate.”
Carolyn, how so? All of the independents, libertarians, constitutionalists, etc. are all supporting Paul right now. With Paul as the GOP nominee, there wouldn’t be a need for a 3rd party candidate to fill in some perceived void.
The people pushing RP to run 3rd party are GOP insiders who are scared to death at the possibility of Paul winning this thing.
December 13th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
UH Bloomberg is the perfect CFR spoiler who will ensure that Hillary gets in with 42% just like Hitler and Bill Clinton.
December 13th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Bloomberg = David Rockefeller
This truly shows that this writer has no clue who is or what Ron Paul stands for.
Bloomberg?!?!?
I’m still ROTFLMAO.
December 13th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=58778 more of the same bilderberg puppets…yeah, great choice, if bloomberg runs i am moving to panama!
December 13th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Who are you kidding with this garbage. Media hype of a Billionaire who’s done what? Stands for zip, zero, nada, nothing, that’s what Bloomberg done for me. For the little guy, me, he’s just more big brother.
Don’t believe the hype. No disrespect to Bloomberg but he’s a Zionist lap dog. Heel, Bloomberg, heel. Frankly our countries had enough of Neocons an Zionism.
F’em.
December 13th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/07/20/do-sore-loser-laws-apply-to-presidential-candidates/
Justin, you need to follow through on your research. “Sore loser laws” do not apply to presidential candidates. This was from the link you provided.
December 13th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
I think it’s time to stop making assumptions based on Giuliani versus Hillary matchups. Neither one is leading in the key primary states, and even if one of the two wins their nomination, it’s very unlikely that they both will at this point.
December 13th, 2007 at 11:47 pm
Brian read my mind (or I read his and didn’t realize it). “Sore loser laws” can’t stop a write-in campaign, even if they do apply to the presidential race.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
[...] another discussion regarding this same matter is going on over at Donklephant. SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Mike Bloomberg Versus Ron Paul on Being Libertarian”, url: [...]
December 14th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
I am a RON PAUL supporter and I would NEVER, NEVER, NEVER vote for
CFR BILLIONAIRE Bloomberg. ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR FRIGGIN MIND. You
will never change RON PAUL’s supporter’s minds to vote for Bloomberg. After
what this country has gone thru with Bush, do you really think the averge
Joe is going to vote for a BILLIONARE???????
December 15th, 2007 at 4:54 am
Drink LiberTEA at the Teaparty, Dec 16, 2007. Drink it for the first time.
All other candidates DENY LIBERTY.
Ron Paul is the greatest candidate I’ve ever seen. Consistent for 30 years. No flip flops. We are done with WAR, we want a real currency, we want peace, we want the welfare-state for the military industrial complex to END, we want to fix America and stop policing the world and to stop the authoritarian oppression here NOW.
Here is what the US Government without Ron Paul in charge has done to us:
- 9 trillion in debt
- 850 billion trade deficit
- War in Iraq
- War in Afghanistan
- Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda alive
- Fomenting War with Iran
- 12.25 trillion M3 money supply, and expanding (massive inflation)
Ron Paul’s record is crystal clean perfect and consistent. He takes no money from anyone but people and constituents. He is as pure as they come.
One of my favorite quotes about Dr. Paul, “You’re working for the most honest man in Congress.†That was John McCain speaking to Kent Snyder in 1988.
December 15th, 2007 at 11:05 am
I think Huckabee and Obama have a little more likelihood of coming out of the primaries. Also, I’m not entirely convinced that Ron Paul wont run as a libertarian. He has a lot of moment and money at this point, and he seems to be saving it for something besides the Republican primaries.
I would like to see some data on a four way race between Bloomberg, Huck, Obama and Paul.
Also I encourage you all to check out the draft bloomberg movement
December 15th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Cynthia McKinney is running on the Green Party ticket. She’s like to have ballot status in 45 states.
She’s recently been reaching out to the Paul voters with her Anti-War message. It’s too late for Bloomberg (the ballot access situation would prevent him from getting on in many states.)
McKinney is most likely to benefit from Paul’s collapse. She’s not even talking Socialist economics any more – it’s all Anti-War conspiracy-laced stuff just like Ron Paul.
She’s a very sharp woman and an even sharper political strategist. Don’t underestmate her. I’d even be willing to be that the reason she finally declared a couple weeks ago, was because she saw the enormous groundswell for Paul amongst Anti-War types and figured she could cash in on it.
December 17th, 2007 at 10:15 pm
This title is propaganda. This is a mouthpiece of the military industrial complex, apparently, to even put those words in a sentence. Ron Paul is ONLY winning, and is ONLY in the lead.
All other proclamations are pure and total lies.
Bloomberg is a flip flopping GUN GRABBING BILLIONAIRE. He should be chased out of the USA for being GUILTY OF TREASON.
December 18th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
If you are disappointed in the direction you see our country going, consider the alternative and the opportunity that a man like Mr. Bloomberg presents. Residents of New York City give their mayor an unprecedented +70% approval rating. A self-made billionaire with a long record for executive managerial competence. He has proven himself to be non-partisan, choosing a pragmatic over dogmatic approach to decision making. Because he is self-financed, he is beholden to no special interests. The time for a third-party candidate is now, and Bloomberg is the right man at the right time. To read more, click above.