So Ron Paul Supporters, What Now?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 3rd Party, Republicans, Ron Paul
Louisiana was a mess and still was a non-story. He didn’t even come close to taking Maine. It’s highly unlikely he’ll be getting any traction on Super Tuesday.
So, what now?
No doubt you all can raise money at an impressive clip, but it’s not translating into votes. So what are you going to do with it? Most of you have dismissed my calls for a 3rd party run, even though the majority of you say you’re going to vote for him if he doesn’t get the nomination (which basically makes him an unofficial 3rd party choice anyway). Think it’s time to revisit that idea?
To that point, his support has flatlined among conservatives James Joyner speculates as to why:
Ron Paul’s numbers are flatlined. He’s the only one of the remaining quartet that isn’t up substantially from six months ago. Despite the field winnowing from ten candidates to four, Paul continues to appeal to no more than 5-6 percent of Republicans.With most candidates, the obvious explanation would be that their support has shifted to one of the frontrunners in a strategic move to avoid “wasting†their vote. Given the depth of Paul’s support, though, that strikes me as incredibly unlikely. The hard-core libertarians who back Paul are mostly dead-enders who would rather write in Paul’s name than deign to compromise for one of the Establishment candidates.
Could it be that hard-core libertarians are just a relatively small group? That, despite being organized and enthusiastic, there aren’t enough of them to elect a president? Barring a better explanation, I’m leaning in that direction.
What Joyner misses is the fact Paul’s support isn’t just among hard-core libertarians. But this is also where Paul’s GOP aspirations miss the mark. Listen closely Paul supporters…HE CAN NOT WIN THE GOP NOMINATION. There’s no clearer way to say it. Republicans are not going to wake up tomorrow and adopt Paul’s wildly different platform. It ain’t gonna happen.
And now it’s reality check time…what will you do? The revolution may extend beyond Ron Paul, but what are you going to do right now to make sure his message keeps going through the general election? Try to sell his platform at the national convention where he’ll probably get booed off the stage? Unlikely.
If you don’t realize that he has to break off from his party now then you simply don’t get it and you never will. Like Obama, he’s bringing in people who have never voted before, and that means he’s not talking to JUST conservatives. That’s the type of momentum you take into an independent run. And since it’s apparent that Bloomberg won’t run if McCain gets the Repub nomination, there’s an opening.
I really hope you all consider pushing your candidate this way because even though I think Paul is an incredibly flawed candidate, I think a 3rd voice needs to be in the national conversation come November, and there’s nobody else who has a better opportunity to be the messenger than Paul.
Think about it.
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February 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
2,100 Turn Out for Ron Paul in Denver -AMAZING Video!
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/281/messages/boards/thread/4158746
February 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Here’s what happens next. The weather begins to warm up and half the country that’s been in hibernation for the winter come out of their homes. Ron Paul supporters also come out in droves spreading a simple message that the what we call government right now is ill and needs surgery. They inform millions that the good doctor is the only candidate who will acknowledge that the inside establishment cannot heal when it is the disease. People will all know this is true, because it is, and they will realize that the main stream media group (with legions of over financially over exteded cubicle wizards) is also is vested in status quo and cannot be trusted as evidenced by all of the skewed articles saved on the internet all over the country. A third party is created and wins the election. That will make it in the history books for sure. Which side to chose, that is the question.
February 3rd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
You still don’t get it Justin.
You play hard until the end. You use the structure you are giving and you take the message all the way until the end of the process.
FTW is the only way to push it all of the way. Know one knows what will happen.
Let no pundit put asunder: RON PAUL ALL OF THE WAY!
February 3rd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Having watched the recent MTV Candidates Forum, and reading the comments of many in the media and online, I feel there needs to be a better perspective of what the Ron Paul Campaign in 2008 means to it’s supporters, the Republican Party and the country as a whole…
It is being reported in some circles that Ron Paul’s failure to win the Maine Caucuses is a ‘disappointment’ to the campaign. Actually, this is not disappointing for Ron paul and his supporters. Of course he would have liked to win his SECOND primary (He did win Louisiana, if they ever decide to count all the votes!), but second place in Maine (not third, as some media outlets are erroneously and prematurely reporting) is pretty good , especially considering it is a continuation of the steady uptick in votes he has been experiencing.
While he may not win the nomination (I won’t say NEVER, since we have seen major candidates implode before, right Rudy?) I liken this year’s campaign for the Doctor to Ronald Reagan’s in 1976. I am old enough to remember that ‘longshot’ and ‘kook’ that everybody in the me mainstream media laughed at and dismissed. But after yet another failed (but well-intentioned) Presidency in Jimmy Carter, Reagan’s message started resonating with people, and four years later they were ready for a radical change. Interestingly enough, ROn Paul was one of only four Congressman supporting him in ‘76- so much for John McCain’s hollow claims of being a ‘footsoldier in the Reagan Revolution’!
That example of perseverance and committment is why I and many others feel the media and the Republican Party leadership are being short-sighted in dismissing Ron Paul and his supporters so easily. REAL change (not the illusion of change being sold by most of the other candidates) takes time to build momentum. But if it’s message is strong, and backed and led by people of character and integrity, that slow momentum will eventually build to an unstoppable crescendo eventually.
That’s precisely what many people are slow to realize: it’s not just the man, Ron Paul- it’s the message. It’s not just a campaign, but a real revolution of ideas and a policy of real change. THAT will be the true legacy of the Ron Paul campaign that will remain well beyond 2008, while the seemingly titanic campaigns of the other candidates with feet of clay will crumble into the dusty pages of history.
Ron Paul 2008, and beyond!
xtrabiggg
++++++++++++++++++++
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
The real question is to you, Justin. What will you do when you realize that ‘I live in a free society’ was all an illusion? The value and infinite worth of a dollar was all smoke and mirrors?
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
If Ron Paul does not win a significant number of delegates to be a contender for the Republican nomination, before the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in May, he should seek the LP nomination. Running on the LP ticket has several advantages, the most significant being more accessible ballot access in 50 states. Paul should announce during a nationally televised interview that the Republican Party clearly is an opponent to limited government, individual liberty, a truly free-market, and a peaceful, noninterventionist foreign policy and he is rescinding his membership and joining the LP, also encouraging his supporters to the same.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Question: Can Dr. Paul still run in the General election as a Republican write-in? His name is awfully easy to spell.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:19 pm
The free state project should be Alaska rather than New Hampshire.
The focus of the Ron Paul movement should be to secede federal lands in Alaska at a land area per person no less than the Amerindian reservations.
The new constitution should be identical to the current one with the following correction:
Freedom of association is the primary human right — superseding all others — entailing that every individual is entitled to subsistence land which they can take with them, in trade, to whatever jurisdiction mutually consents to to have them as resident.
Any violation of the the primary human right is grounds for war or other forms of reprisal.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
If Ron Paul does not win a significant number of delegates to be a contender for the Republican nomination, before the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in May, he should seek the LP nomination. Running on the LP ticket has several advantages, the most significant being more accessible ballot access in 50 states. Paul should then announce during a nationally televised interview that the Republican Party clearly is an opponent to limited government, individual liberty, a truly free-market, and a peaceful, noninterventionist foreign policy and he is rescinding his membership and joining the LP, also encouraging his supporters to the same. It would benefit America, if Ron Paul was to continue delivering the liberty message through the General Election in November, especially if he gets to participate in the Presidential Debates. It would also benefit the LP, the membership of which has been promoting these ideas for over 30 years.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Interesting. Ron Paul’s support certainly hasn’t flat lined in IL. 1 month ago he was polling at 3% – now he’s polling at 10%. What you call a flat-line, I call triple growth. Keep trying though. =o)
http://www.KnowBeforeYouVote.com/
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Ron Paul outlasted Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Tommy Thompson, James Gilmore, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, John Edwards, Bill Richardson…
He may even outlast Mitt Romney after Super Tuesday, because even Romney isn’t dumb enough to pour millions of his own money into a sinkhole.
So go ahead and laugh all you want Justin, 20 years from now future Republicans are going to call themselves Ron Paul Republicans. He’ll be fondly remembered as Reagan is now. Who’s going to remember Mitt Romney? John McCain after he gets his ass handed to him by Clinton or Obama? BWAHAHAHA – RON PAUL IS GOING TO HAVE THE LAST LAUGH BABY!!
All thanks to the Stupid GOP Party who allowed independents and liberals to cross-over into their primaries and pick the weakest Republican for the Democrats. The primary process needs to be totally overhauled, start holding the first Republican primaries in REPUBLICAN states such as Utah and Texas so the most conservative candidate can be chosen. Also, the Republican Party needs to start talking about the basics again. Low taxes, less government, fiscal responsibility, and end to perpetual war. This is what Ron Paul has been preaching but the dumb ass party ignores it and now wants conservatives to get behind John McLame. Forget it – I’ll be doing yard work come this fall’s general election, and when Hillary takes office and starts taking away your guns and freedom don’t come crying to me.
February 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Justin, Did you miss the MSM non-event, the Caucuses in Maine? 19% with real people choosing not MSM shills. No I don’t think you forgot, I give you more credit than that. You chose to ignore. You know, one of those MSM shill Justin Gardner news blackouts.
February 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
What interests me is the number of voters I am encountering who are Ron Paul supporters . . . but not even close to being conservatives. I think, for example, of the one who has been known to remark “Barbara Boxer is a moderate. Or was, until she was coopted by the Establishment.” This is a conservative??? But for the first time in her life, she registered as a Republican this year, just so she could vote for Paul.
A movement like this could remake the Republican Party — in a couple of decades. Or it could start a third party, and displace one of today’s two major parties in a couple of General Election cycles. But it will not change the world in a year. As Justin says, “ain’t gonna happen.” So start thinking know about which approach you want to put your time and effort into.
February 3rd, 2008 at 2:25 pm
To go 3rd party now would be to leave the media spotlight (what little he gets) until the primaries are over. It would also stop a movement that could drastically change (and rescue) the Republican party. As long as he has the money and volunteers, I think he should go all the way to the convention. He’d possibly gain respect for going the distance. The ideal scenario would be a brokered convention, though that now appears less likely. A good scenario would include the GOP giving Dr. Paul a chance to speak at the convention. This campaign is more than a presidential candidate or a cult of personality. It’s about reversing decades of bad GOP policies and actions. It’s about giving a voice to the disenfranchised. It’s about supporting legislative candidates in Dr. Paul’s mold (e.g., Murray Sabrin in NJ). Win or lose, speech or no speech, when the convention is over is the time to consider a 3rd party run. When Republican voters can see how their party has been stolen from them, and when Democrats see that their historic decision between a woman and a black man was really a choice between two people unqualified and/or unfit for the presidency, Dr. Paul can announce a 3rd party bid (preferably as a true Independent). He’d be a spoiler for both parties, though perhaps for different reasons. In the meantime, the revolution must go on in the GOP primaries. We must try to fix the system from within before leaving it behind. It’s the responsible and ethical thing to do. It’s the patriotic thing to do.
February 3rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
First as to why Ron Paul has flat lined – A big part of that was the media blackout that occurred essentially after the Tim Russert interview. Definitely after the newsletters came out. At the same time McCain received hours of sympathy TV time from the old media.
Anyway, a third party run should be started after super tuesday, especially if Paul does at all well. If not Ron Paul , someone with similar views could take over that groups (though I’m at a loss as to who, Nader is too much of a regulator, and has run his course.
Or we could all move to Alaska and Secede – that idea has its charm
February 3rd, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Ron Paul has flatlined because most people have the sense to realize that his platform has no relation to the real world, Justin. Libertarianism of any stripe completely ignores the real world and how non-ideologues think. Consider Maslow’s Heirarchy of Needs and how it ties into the modern globalized economy and the ideology of libertarianism. Look particularly at the level referred to as safety. Think about those needs and losing your job or knowing someone who has lost theirs and what it does to a family. What watching the bills pile up even as you do your best to find a job does to someone’s feelings of self worth. Then you are offered a job. But the pay isn’t nearly what your old job paid. There aren’t any benefits or maybe they’re just not as good as what you used to have. Why should those who have gone through this or know someone who has gone through this support someone who has as a major part of his philosophy the dismissal of that experience as their fault exclusively, that there is nothing in the nature of the economy that contributed to it and every government program that might have helped them should be eliminated? And don’t give me anything about the states taking care of it. In the real world the states have balanced budget requirements that result in these programs being slashed to the bone when they are needed the most. Non-ideologues know that in the real world they live in there is no such thing as job security and that because of that a reliable social safety net is needed. Paulistas and other types of libertarians would rather sneer at people who have needed that safety net and are perfectly willing to let them suffer if the private charities of the world can’t help.
February 3rd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Ron Paul is not flatlining. He is just now building momentum. Think about the large majority of the anti-war vote that went to McCain in the NH exit polls. Those people obviously didn’t know what the heck they were voting for in “Hundred Year War†McKill. Every dollar donated, every commercial ran, every door knocked will keep growing this movement.
February 3rd, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Well ….. it is not over until it is over. Ron Paul wants to speak at the convention. To do that he will need enough delegates to make a difference in a brokered convention. We will know more after super Tuesday. Does anyone really know what is going on in Louisiana and in Maine? Or Nevada? Or California? Everyone is paying attention to the voting but not to the elected delegates. Very interesting times. Ron Paul supporters are dedicated, ACTIVE, creative and smart. Just be patient and keep voting. And keep trying and sending money! Even when the voting is done in your state. We ARE making a difference for our kids and grandkids, and maybe even ourselves.
Oh AND BUY gold. Bernanke is trying to hold back the tide.
February 3rd, 2008 at 9:09 pm
Where on earth did you get the totals for Maine this early? Wishful writing perhaps?
February 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
I went and took my only day off today to work at the CALL4PAUL Los Angeles Headquarters.
What happens is a calling machine calls a number in Minnesota. Someone answers the phone (potential voter) they are asked if they want more info on Ron Paul to press * At that point they are transfered to us.
We answer the phone and answer any questions they have.
The majority of the people that have heard of Ron Paul say they are voting for him and want us to know that.
The ones that have never heard of Ron Paul are completely confused and outraged at the media blackout of such a QUALIFIED CANDIDATE not even being mentioned in the media. Many googled him and looked at ronpaul2008 dot com.
People, there is a HUGE PAUL FOLLOWING OUT THERE lets all do our part to spread the word. Even if he doesn’t get the delegates
HE MUST RUN ON A THIRD PARTY TICKET.
LET’S SEE THIS THROUGH TO THE END
kabster
February 4th, 2008 at 10:06 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=140388
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February 4th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Here is what one Ron Paul supporter intends to do. My mother was a Republican for 60 years. Then after she discovered what the Bush administration was doing to destroy our country and the rest of the world, she re-registered as an independent.
She is strongly behind Ron Paul, he is her first choice candidate. The other day she told me that McCain scares her, she thinks he is a crazy warmonger and that if he is the Republican candidate, she will vote for Obama. !!!!!!!!!
February 4th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Sandra exemplifies the typical level of knowledge of the hardcore Paul supporters. Yes, Maine has already had their Republican caucuses.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Paul won’t be a cinch for the LP nomination. Wayne Root is the frontrunner right now in the Libertarian Party. I can’t see him stepping aside for Paul without a fight.
Plus, Paul would have to give up his Congressional seat to go 3rd party. Texas Republicans won’t stand for him jumping ship.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Ron Paul will have to beat Wayne Root first for the Libertarian nomination. There are a lot of LPers who don’t like Ron Paul, particularly after the Racist Newsletter scandal.
Plus, Paul would have to give up his Congressional seat here in Texas.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Ron Paul will have to beat Wayne Root first for the Libertarian nomination. There are a lot of LPers who don’t like Ron Paul, particularly after the Racist Newsletter scandal.
Plus, Paul would have to give up his Congressional seat here in Texas.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Jim S, you talk about balanced budgets like they’re a bad thing. If average Americans spent more than they made they’d be up to their eyeballs in credit card debt, look for “too good to be true” deals, end up broke, and lose their homes. Oh wait…
So, why is balancing the budget, a responsible thing for individuals to do, a bad idea for the federal and state governments?
February 4th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Realistically, even the most hardcore RP supporters have to look to the future. I’ve never been this inspired and involved in a candidate’s campaign, yet I pull the lever tomorrow for RP knowing that we’re a long shot. This is the truly important thing: We’re not voting for Ron Paul. We’re not Paulistas, we’re not blind lemmings following a PERSONALITY. We’re voting for freedom and liberty…this is not about RP, and he’s smart enough to know that. The notion of a constitutional government is not going to go away after this election cycle.
Some want to let the barn burn in order to save the farmhouse. I guess that would mean helping the opposition to sell away even more of our sovereignty for cheap votes. So we pick a whore from the left and let ‘em give away the store for four years. Hopefully by then even more people will have come to their senses and realize what a crisis we’re in.
Then all an obscure candidate would have to do is invoke the name Ron Paul, and a bunch of citizens will come out of the woodwork and do this all over again until enough people “get it!” Whoever that candidate may be, he/she had better be a brilliant economist, because we’ve built quite a house of cards over the years, and it’s going to take some extreme talent and a lot of guts to dismantle it properly without causing economic ruin.
I’m glad Ron’s in good health. He may live to see the dream fulfilled, even if he’s not in the captain’s chair.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
I refuse to be a sheep and have no loyalty to the long lost republican party. My loyalty is to my country. I vow to never sell out to McCain or any of the others.