Evangelicals Moving To Obama?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, McCain, Religion, Republicans
Apparently the fervor isn’t exactly at a fever pitch for McCain, and Mark DeMoss, one of the more high-profile PR flaks for the biggest evangelical groups, is suggesting this could mean a shift to Obama.
You represent some of the nation’s most powerful evangelicals. What do those leaders say about McCain?This is one guy’s perspective, but I am surprised by how little I’ve seen or read in conservative circles about McCain since February. I don’t think I’ve gotten one email or letter or phone call from anybody in America in the last four months saying anything about this election or urging that we unite behind John McCain and put aside whatever differences we have. Back in the fall and winter, you’d get several things a day from conservatives saying, “The future of the Supreme Court is at stake. We have to stop Hillary Clinton. Get behind so and so—or don’t’ go with this guy.†It’s just very quiet. It could meant there’s a real sense of apathy or it could mean they’re’ waiting for the general election to begin. But it’s a surprise, given the way email networks work now.
Barack Obama is trying hard to win evangelical voters. Does that effort stand a chance?
If one third of white evangelicals voted for Bill Clinton the second time, at the height of Monica Lewinsky mess—that’s a statistic I didn’t believe at first but I double and triple checked it—I would not be surprised if that many or more voted for Barack Obama in this election. You’re seeing some movement among evangelicals as the term [evangelical] has become more pejorative. There’s a reaction among some evangelicals to swing out to the left in an effort to prove that evangelicals are really not that right wing. There’s some concern that maybe Republicans haven’t done that well. And there’s this fascination with Barack Obama. So I will not be surprised if he gets one third of the evangelical vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 40-percent.
I’m sorry….did he say 40%?
Okay, that’s a big deal and so I’m going to have to put this in perspective.
According to Pew Research, in the 2000 election Bush got 68% of this voting bloc, while Gore got 30%. In 2004, it was Bush with 78% and Kerry with a measly 21%. So if Obama can get 40%, that represents a seismic shift.
So, do you think 40% is realistic given how poorly Democrats have done with these voters the past 8 years?
UPDATE:
I forgot about this Gallup poll that was just put out yesterday.
Gallup sees the numbers as such…
McCain leads Obama by 10 points among Protestants and other non-Catholic Christians, the largest religious group in the United States. McCain’s lead would be even larger except for the facts that blacks are most likely to be Protestant and overwhelmingly support Obama. Catholics are a traditional swing group, and McCain and Obama are evenly matched among them at this point. Obama has a significant lead among two reliably Democratic groups — Jewish voters and voters with no religious affiliation.
Even with the black Protestant vote being decidedly in Obama’s corner, I can’t help but think the evangelical vote has to be a bit tighter than usual too.
More as it develops…
UPDATE:
A commenter at reddit sees similar trends:
This article is on to something. It’s anecdotal, but all the evangelicals I associate with (granted not many; mostly family) aren’t very excited about McCain and seem apathetic or intrigued by Obama. Hillary is the devil, for some reason, but McCain isn’t exactly the outspoken proponent against gay marriage and abortion that this voting demographic thrives on.
Anybody else have family who isn’t exactly buying what McCain is selling?
This entry was posted on Friday, June 6th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, McCain, Religion, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 16th, 2008 at 8:41 am
[...] a recent post, I explored how Obama could get upwards of 40% of the evangelical vote, and with yesterday’s blistering [...]
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
Well, now that Steven Strang has left a vacancy for a religious endorsement, on the stage at Barack’s coronation ceremony, maybe Barack should come out of the closet and recruit the religious leaders who have always supported him … and, who Barack has always supported. Pastor Jeremiah Wright … Father Phleiger … and the rest of the radicals. But, we know Barack won’t do that, because even though that represents who Barack truly is … it wouldn’t help Barack deceive us … and get him elected. In November, vote for Senator John McCain, a man who truly loves America, with over 40 years of service and sacrafice … not Obama, an inexperienced, incompetent, empty suit, who is being agressively packaged and sold to the American people.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 am
Gina, I think you’re on to something. Did you ever see the Manchurian candidate? Maybe Obama was plucked out a madrasas by some clever and evil Islamic clerics to infiltrate the country and become the President in order to expediate the world-wide califate.
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
It’s funny how “evangelical” really means “white protestant who believes others are going to hell”. But “black Prtestants who believe others are going to hell” are called “Black Protestants”. Funny that.