FiveThirtyEight Thinks Alaska Senate Could Go Blue
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Alaska, Palin, Senate
Why?
Because early, absentee and provisional votes seem to favor challenger Mark Begich (pictured above).
Analysis from Nate Silver:
Although Ted Stevens currently holds a lead of approximately 3,200 votes in ballots counted to date in Alaska’s senate contest, there is good reason to believe that the ballots yet to be counted — the vast majority of which are early and absentee ballots — will allow Mark Begich to mitigate his disadvantage with Stevens and quite possibly pull ahead of him.The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska’s 40 house districts as taken from Alaska’s Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself. [...]
There are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes, which are essentially early votes conducted by mail. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 “question” or “questioned” ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts.
So those are the predictions. But let’s say that Stevens wins. What then?
Well, regardless of what other outlets tell you, Sarah Palin can’t appoint herself Senator when Ted Stevens is forced to step down (if he wins).
Instead there will be a new election and Palin could certainly enter the race if she has 2012 aspirations. The question then is, “Does she want to?” My guess would be no. She’s much better positioned to stay mostly out of the public eye, work on energy issues up in Alaska and continue to make targeted trips down to the lower 48 throughout the next 3 years. That way she maintains a “reformer” image by not participating in the partisan game that is the Senate.
So that’s my take. What do you think?
This entry was posted on Saturday, November 8th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Alaska, Palin, Senate. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 8th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Continuing as governor might be the smart choice. Do you think she’s that smart?
November 8th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
While I dont know if Palin can appoint herself she does have the power to appoint someone to fill an empty US senate or house seat.
Per Alaska Statute. AS 15.40.145 if there is a vacancy in the US senate or house the governor may appoint a replacement anytime between 5 and 30 days after the vacancy. This person then serves until the results of the special election are certified. See
Read the comments at the following link and you will see a link I posted to the specific Alaska statutes.
http://www.ieatgravel.com/?p=1515#comments
November 8th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Her biggest liability was the fact that she was not knowledgeable about foreign affairs (or even national affairs). Acting on the national stage as a senator burnishes her credentials as someone who has dealt with these worldly issues, as opposed to someone who has only governed a remote, sparsely-populated state.
November 8th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
I’m a Dem in Wasilla who voted straight party ticket enthusiastically. While I had mildly supported Palin during her term served as Governor, I was so dismayed by what I’ve learned during her run as Veep, that I realized that she wasn’t ready to even be Governor. However, that is a major truth for all would-be politicians in Alaska.
I moved to Alaska in 2004 and have learned many truths about Alaska, most of them requiring a good deal more tolerance and acceptance than I would have thought possible. One can clean them up to appear civilized, but appearances are deceiving, as was discovered with Sarah. However, a bigger shock might be the level of her knowledge as a college graduate from Idaho. “This” is a college graduate from ANY college?
I would like to believe that the voters would have turned Stevens out of office after his conviction; however, he has a long history of championing the “little people.” Many of his earmarks were aimed at helping Native Alaskans in the villages — people who live with hardships that only can be believed if one has had similar experiences.
Many voters knew the “shack” that Stevens called home for years. Even the remodeled version is fairly simplistic housing by anyone’s standards. He’s a highly sympathetic figure. Remember, his stutter is lifelong, yet was overlooked by the voters up here. Few believe that he was in office for personal gain. I don’t. I think that if one reviewed financial records, he’d come in after a lifetime of service within the bottom 5 Senators.
In 2004, two laws were passed due to the uproar of Lisa Murkowski’s appointment to the Senate by her father–one by the legislature and one by the voters. A judge will likely have to determine which is the more viable law–but both require an election rather than an appointment for the term of office.
I tend to agree with you that if she were to run at this time, she’s lost most of her political capital within the state. Too many new things have been disclosed which would devastate her campaign. I also think she’s worn out right now and needs a time to regenerate her spirit. Mark Begich may yet pull out this election. If not, he stands the best to be able to capitalize on a new election.
Personally, I don’t think
November 13th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
I absolutly LOVE Palin, and I would dream of nothing less than for her to replace our current and near future (4yr) NIGHTMARE! I do believe that anything that helps bolster her national recognition would be a positive.
To the person that is critical of her education… Obviously you are a well spoken person… Just not a person with my same belief’s.
I do believe that the US is going to be a more socialistic and GODLESS over the next 4 yrs. This race was only won by 4%. I would like to close my eyes and wake up 4ys from now and be able to elect a real conservative into the presidential position. I would like to emphasize the work conservative not necessarily republican.
I just hope that there is not too many long lasting decisions made over the next 2 yrs, and that the republicans can re-gain their conservative position and win back one or both of the houses of congress. At least that would put on the brakes with what I dreed.
Good luck to all of us here in the US - my predication is as follows: Obama and the liberal congress will raise taxes on more than just those making over 250k per year. Remember that the tax increase covered federal income, medicare, cap gains, and dividend taxes… Those in that 250k and over category will have over 95k avg per person or family in this category to make up in order for this mass give away of income to occur. Once this happens it will affect peoples decision in regard to small businesses and the stock market… There will be less investment in the stock market and less expansion of small business. In fact I believe that there will be layoffs in the small business sector. I do not believe that these jobs will be replaced, but if they are they will be by smaller weaker companies than the ones they were laid off from.
Obvioulsly I believe this will lead to a longer term economic down turn.
This is a direct opposite plan to what Reagan implemented that worked and turned the economy around.
You learn from the past!
Good Luck,