Iran’s Interior Ministry Told Moussavi He Won
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Elections, Iran
The international community should not recognize the results of Iran’s 12 June 2009 presidential election, which gives all signs of having been manipulated by government authorities to produce a massive victory for incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. The Campaign further recommended that the existing results be voided and new elections held in order to establish legitimacy.As the Campaign reported earlier, the leading challenger to Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Moussavi, was informed by Iran’s Interior Ministry at 23:00 on 12 June that tabulated results showed him to be victor, and he was asked to wait on celebrations until Sunday.
A few hours later, the Ministry inexplicably reversed itself declaring a massive victory for Ahmadinejad. Iran’s religious Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ignoring turmoil in the Ministry and rising protests, announced the victory and declared the process finished.
“The international community cannot accept such questionable election results, and should withhold recognition of these elections,“ stated Hadi Ghaemi, spokesperson for the Campaign.
“All must help the authorities understand that there will be no social peace in Iran and no credibility for the government abroad, without a re-run to discover which candidate actually deserves to govern,†he said.
I think the government seriously underestimated the Iranian people and what we’re seeing right now is the beginning of the end for this regime.
But it could get VERY bloody.
Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann’s show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow — and there we met. [...]My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits — and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this — and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran’s government apparatus to fight back — but given Khamenei’s embrace of Ahmadinejad’s actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei — but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to “do away with” those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp — who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense — may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and “do away with” Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
Is civil war eminent in Iran?
Has it already started?
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June 14th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I think it has already started. If a majority of the people voted for Mousavi, then a majority of the people are, right now, angry and confused. If Ahmedinejad has Mousavi killed, this thing is going to get very, very ugly.
June 14th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
20 years ago the Chinese Communists were very rattled by what they saw in Tiananmen square. My guess is that this particular outburst will be brutally crushed by the security services as well.
Whether this revolt works will probably depend on the international response. Iran has no oil refining capacity, so if the international community imposes a gasoline embargo it would be a real problem for Ahmadinejad.
Note that in this case the US can’t really do much. We’re already embargoing them. The most important actors are the other Democracies and the Russians. We probably won’t get much help from the Russians. They aren’t exactly big on ethical elections themselves, and they will believe that a Mousavi-led Iran will be pro-Western, and therefore bad for Russia.
June 14th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
the most that the US would do would provide weapons. I have no doubt that they’re already setting up those contacts.
June 14th, 2009 at 9:09 pm
The Iranian people have had enough. I think a full scale, armed revolution is imminent. If it succeeds, the nuclear threat Iran poses to the world will be gone, and we’ll have a new, democratic country. If it fails, the regime will be weak and bloodied anyway, and in no shape to threaten anyone.